The gulf widens between the Cubs and the Reds. What happens next?

CHICAGO — Through the first two months of the season, the Cincinnati Reds are a streaky team that finds ways to give up leads but can’t come back from deficits.

They’re above average in team OPS, but they’re tied for the most shutouts in MLB in 2025 (9) and have the most shutouts in MLB dating back to the start of the 2024 season (25). They’ve played really well to earn series wins against good teams like the Giants, Guardians and Royals, but they also have series losses against the Nationals, White Sox, Marlins and Pirates where the Reds have played down to their competition.

They’ve had a 6-1 stretch plus two five-game winning streaks. They have also had stretches where they’ve gone 3-7, 2-5, 4-11 and 4-7.

This week, just when it looked like the Reds’ bats had turned the corner, the team got shut down in consecutive losses against below-average Cubs starting pitchers.

“If I had the answer, I wouldn’t be sitting here pissed off,” Terry Francona said. “We’re going to have to figure that out better. On days where you really swing it, that’s good. We’re going to have to find ways to manufacture some runs when we’re not swinging it very good.”

The Reds are 8.5 games back in the NL Central race against the Chicago Cubs, who just went 18-9 in May despite up-and-down pitching. Even though the Reds’ May felt solid (the worst stretches from this offense were in April), they only went 13-15.

Over the last week, the Reds have played two series against the Cubs. The Reds had a real shot to establish some real, meaningful momentum as well as move up in the NL Central race. The series opener this weekend (series two vs. the Cubs) was a great sign as the Reds punched first, took an early lead and withstood a late rally from Chicago. It was a gritty win, but now it’s overshadowed by two more frustrating losses.

Over their last six games against the Cubs, the Reds scored 11 runs in the first inning. It felt like either the Reds got off to a strong start, or the game was over during this six-game stretch.

“Whatever happened six games ago, it doesn’t matter,” Francona said. “We show up today and try to win. It doesn’t matter what happened in Cincinnati. It doesn’t enter into our game.”

The Cubs, on the other hand, are known for their comeback magic. Erasing late deficits has been the key to their success this year. The Reds still don’t have a comeback in games they’ve trailed after the sixth inning.

These six games against the Cubs show how much of a difference it feels like there is between these teams.

The Reds have a great rotation, and the starters have been good for the most part against Chicago. But the Cubs’ lineup was just better than the Reds’ pitching staff. And an injury-riddled Cubs pitching staff was good enough to beat the Reds’ offense.

“They’ve got some guys that are swinging it really well,” Nick Martinez. “They’re putting together some really good at-bats. They have a good approach, and they're sticking to it.”

The Reds’ four losses in six games tell the story of their season.

-The Reds carried a 6-2 lead in Game 1. But then, a missed tag on a routine grounder on a potential double play ball to Matt McLain followed by a dropped pop fly in shallow left field opened the door for a six-run seventh inning. The Reds lost the game by seven runs.

-In Game 3, the Reds had an 8-3 lead in the fifth. But all series, the Cubs’ dangerous lineup worked long at-bats against the Reds’ starters. None of the Reds’ starters pitched deep into the game in the series at GABP, and the bullpen got taxed. That showed up as Graham Ashcraft, Taylor Rogers (who has barely gotten into games all season) and Luis Mey allowed seven runs. The Cubs won, 11-8, and the Reds didn’t have a counter punch to the Cubs’ late rally as Cincinnati’s offense totaled four hits and no runs in 5 ⅔ innings vs. the Cubs’ bullpen.

-In Game 5, the Reds had a rematch against a Cubs pitcher who they had just scored eight runs against. But this time, Ben Brown shut down the Reds, allowing one hit in six shutout innings. “We just missed a few pitches that were in the heart (of the zone),” Will Benson said. The Cubs neutralized the Reds in the first inning with a left-handed opener (Drew Pomeranz), who had advantageous matchups against the left-handed TJ Friedl, the slumping Santiago Espinal and Elly De La Cruz, who’s better vs. RHP, as Pomeranz pitched a scoreless first inning. Then in the eighth inning with the score tied at zero, a fly ball got by Will Benson and De La Cruz failed to convert a routine groundout as the Cubs scored the only two runs of the game.

-Then in Game 6 — the Reds still had a chance to split this six-game stretch vs. the Cubs — De La Cruz reached base three times. The rest of the team combined to reach four times as De La Cruz created the Reds’ only offense in a 7-3 loss. The Cubs took four out of the six games during this stretch even though the Reds were in a great position to win all but one of them.

Looking forward, the Reds don’t have a ton of flexibility to make short-term changes. Their bench on Sunday was Connor Joe, Garrett Hampson and two backup catchers.

Christian Encarnacion-Strand (back) is on a rehab assignment, and Francona said they’d discuss next steps for him at the end of the weekend and determine what his rehab schedule would be going forward. He could return in the near future, but it’s hard to know what to expect.

CES posted a .513 OPS in limited time last season before he went on the IL with a season-ending wrist injury. This year, he posted a .482 OPS before landing on the IL in April.

His thump is something the Reds don’t have enough of. He has looked good on his rehab assignment, but CES will always hit well in spring training/Triple-A environments where the pitching isn’t challenging for him.

He has been banged up over the last two years, which played a role in his struggles. When he’s not at 100%, he falls into bad habits and slumps.

But still, the power potential is appealing for this Reds’ team, and CES has also shown that he can get hot.

When he’s ready, do you put CES in a bench role and have him compete for a starting spot and show he’s not the guy who has struggled at the big league level in 2024 and 2025? Do you have him start at first, move Spencer Steer to left field, move Gavin Lux to third (where he has barely played this season despite an opportunity there) and bench Espinal? Do you move some other pieces around and have CES replace one of Matt McLain, Jake Fraley or Will Benson in the lineup?

Espinal’s role is a fascinating one as he sticks in the No. 2 spot in the lineup. On Saturday against the Cubs, Francona pinch-hit Jake Fraley for Espinal in a clutch situation. Espinal has been slumping, and the move seemingly confirmed that Espinal isn’t one of the small handful of guys who Francona wants up at the plate the most vs. RHP. Espinal is a valuable piece who has saved the Reds several times over the last two years, but it’s not fair to him to ask him to carry the lineup in such a big role.

On the other hand, the Reds don’t have an obvious replacement for the No. 2 spot in the order.

Francona made it sound like the Reds will stick with McLain. His defense is still a real asset, and he still has more upside than most Reds’ hitters. Francona said that McLain hasn’t been worn down by this slump and is still upbeat. Francona added, “I fall back on that he’s a good player. He’s going to get hot. I’m surprised it hasn’t happened yet, but it will.” McLain’s struggles have mostly been approach-based as he regularly falls into two-strike counts

The Reds have to figure out the pecking order for their corner outfield spots. Benson’s bat has cooled off. His defense has never been a strength, and he was a part of two key missed plays over the weekend, including one where he ran into TJ Friedl and the ball dropped.

The Reds need Fraley to be the power hitter that he was in 2023, and he has been a below-average hitter going back to the start of last season despite getting almost all of his at-bats vs. RHP.

Lux is one of the Reds’ most consistent hitters vs. RHP, and he has made a big impact at the plate. The trade has been a good one for the Reds. But Lux, who has been an infielder for most of his career, was recently taken out of a game with Connor Joe entering as the defensive replacement in left field, which hinted at Francona’s evaluation of Lux’s outfield defense.

Unlike in the 2023 season, the Reds don’t have prospects in Triple-A who are ready to step into big roles and provide a spark.

Despite of all of this adversity, the Reds still have a 29-31 record. They could still get over .500 by the end of this week, which starts against a Brewers team that has had the Reds’ number.

There’s still time, but the gulf between the Cubs and Reds looks bigger than it did 10 days ago.