Without Kyle Schwarber, the Reds go back to the status quo

ORLANDO — There’s a massive gap between Plan A and Plan B for this Cincinnati Reds’ offseason, and that difference reflects a lot about the Reds.

While they found a way to make Kyle Schwarber a real offer, the Reds’ best offer still wasn’t enough to land a player whose connection to the city was a great selling point. Now, the Reds aren’t expected to make even that level of offer for any other premier free agent this winter. It’s back to building from within.

The Reds were serious in their pursuit of Schwarber in free agency. The strength of their pursuit was reflected in the fact that Schwarber and his wife visited for an in-person meeting in late November with the Reds’ front office, Terry Francona and owner Bob Castellini. The Reds weren’t told they were “out” of the race in Schwarber’s free agency until Tuesday morning.

When the Phillies went over the top with a five-year, $150 million offer that was bigger than analysts and prognosticators expected, the Reds missed their chance to land what would have been a franchise-changing free agent.

The Reds were willing to spend in this case. But while the money the Reds offered Schwarber could be used on other free agents this winter, Nick Krall reiterated that “our budget is in a similar spot as it was last year.”

Schwarber would have been an exception. Without that exception, the Reds have about $5-to-$10 million to spend going forward this winter.

It’s understandable that Schwarber would want to return to his old team in the Phillies, a true World Series contender, on a massive contract that carries plenty of risk for Philadelphia. You don’t land every big free agent you pursue, which is why you really need to be pursuing more than one.

The problem is that signing Schwarber was and is likely to be the Reds’ only attempt to make a move of this magnitude. The Reds were in this race because of where Schwarber grew up.

If the Reds can’t land Schwarber, what premier free agent will they ever land? Most likely, none.

In the Schwarber discussions, even Reds’ ownership’s best exceptions to its typical approach toward free agent payroll weren’t enough to get Schwarber to Cincinnati. Now, with Schwarber off the board, things go back to the status quo.

If ownership’s best exceptions still aren’t enough to make a move of this magnitude a reality, the only way for the Reds’ front office to manage this level of payroll and the current approach from ownership is to keep building the Reds through the draft and develop model.

They’ll keep trying to build from within.

“We made the decision to be a draft and develop team because we have to be that team,” Krall said. “We have to continue to have a strong farm system to grow players to the big leagues. We are a small market. We want to be good in this market. This is the best way for us to do it.”

Schwarber’s hometown connection and his perfect fit on the Reds’ current roster presented a perfect storm. The Reds knew how much better he’d make them in 2026 and beyond, and ownership seemed to have a lot of confidence that signing Schwarber would sell tickets and impact the bottom line to such a substantial degree that the potential signing was viewed as a safer type of investment. Ultimately, the Phillies flexed their muscles as a big market team and ponied up a massive deal that Schwarber took.

The Reds were prepared to take creative measures to make the money work with Schwarber. But even with those measures, these are the same Reds who had to include Taylor Rogers’ salary at the trade deadline last year to create enough space in the budget for Ke’Bryan Hayes.

Plan B for the Reds looks like it’ll be the market for prove-it deals and buy low candidates. This winter will probably look a lot like last winter. Heading into 2025, the Reds upgraded their lineup by striking a deal when Gavin Lux unexpectedly became available on the trade market in January, and by placing a bet on Austin Hays bouncing back from a kidney infection that tanked his production in 2024 (the Hays signing wound up working for the Reds in 2025).

On paper, names that make sense on this winter’s free agent board include Hays (likely on a raise), Miguel Andujar, Paul Goldschmidt, Rhys Hoskins, Lane Thomas, Adolis Garcia, Michael Conforto, Rob Refsnyder and Willi Castro.

The Reds still need to find a replacement for the free agent bats they’re losing (Hays and Andujar). With Schwarber off the board, it doesn’t look like the Reds will be in the market for the level of player who would meaningfully elevate the Reds into a different tier of contention.

If the Reds have mostly the same roster next year, does Krall feel like he can really expect a big jump from the team in 2026?

“We’ve got a young roster,” Krall said. “Matt McLain is two years off surgery, and he’s improving. Elly (De La Cruz) is improving from one year to the next. Hunter Greene. Nick Lodolo. They’re all improving. As they get into their prime, you expect some step forward with that group. With that said, you also want to figure out how to add to make yourself the best possible team you can be.”

Schwarber would have made the Reds feel like a different type of team. Dusty Baker actually joked on Tuesday that Schwarber might have hit 72 homers in GABP next season if the team was able to sign him.

But at the end of the day, are you really surprised that the Reds didn’t land a top tier free agent? A lot of good hitters are going to be available this winter for between $10-to-$25 million, but the Reds’ plan this winter looks like it was, go Schwarber or go small.

The most common question that I’m asked is “When are the Reds going to change?”

I answer that the Reds have made a lot of changes over the last few years. But those changes weren’t expensive ones. Those changes have been in areas that the front office can control — styles of players they prioritize in the draft, hitting philosophy, approach to international scouting, etc. I’d argue that most of those changes have worked.

The most important change would be ownership changing its entire approach toward payroll.

“Our ownership group puts everything back into the team every year,” Krall said. “They try to figure out how to break even every year. That’s how we budget. We’re trying to figure out how to best utilize that budget for the big league club.”

Until that changes, the Reds will keep trying to draft and develop their way as high as they can go. In 2025, that took them to Los Angeles, where the Dodgers’ cast of superstars very quickly bounced the Reds from the playoffs.

Who knows the next time the Reds will have a chance to sign a guy like Schwarber. Who knows when they’ll even meet in person with this level of player again. They were closer here than they’ve been in years. This should have been ownership’s very best possible offer, and it still wasn’t enough.

Now going forward, the Reds will keep doing what they’ve been doing.

That statement probably won’t land well around Schwarber’s hometown.