Wade Miley's crushing injury has a significant ripple effect

Wade Miley’s most recent inning was the best that he has looked since he had Tommy John surgery. Heading into the fifth inning in Detroit last Sunday, Terry Francona easily could have pulled Miley for the fifth inning. Francona stuck with him, and Miley looked so sharp that he campaigned to stay in for the sixth.

While Miley didn’t get that opportunity, it looked like he was fully built up and as back to normal as a 38-year-old coming off elbow surgery could be.

Miley did offer this, though, after last Sunday’s win: “I feel good. There are times in between innings past the third (inning) where I start stiffening up. When I get out there and throw a couple (pitches), it feels normal.”

Before he pitched in another game, Miley landed on the injured list with a flexor strain.

It’s a devastating break for the 15-year big league veteran who pondered retirement and really battled to come back from Tommy John surgery. (I’m not on this road trip in St. Louis, but I’m sure his teammates are crushed for him).

Miley wasn’t pitching like a frontline starter. But he was keeping the Reds in games, mixing pitches and performing like a good replacement fifth starter, which is what he was signed to be. He had a place in the Reds’ rotation going forward and was about as good of a starter as a team could realistically expect to find out of thin air in June.

Miley’s injury creates a significant ripple effect on the Reds’ starting rotation.

Chase Petty was added to the taxi squad, and it looks like he’s in line to fill that spot in the Reds’ rotation. The 22-year-old was the youngest starter to appear in a big league game this season (also younger than Hunter Greene was at the time of his MLB debut). Both of Petty’s MLB appearances so far have gone very poorly. The Reds skipped his turn through the rotation last month before sending him back down to Triple-A.

After he returned to Louisville in late May, Petty made four starts (2 ⅓ innings, two earned runs. Four innings, two earned runs. Six innings, one earned run. 4 ⅓ innings, no runs).

On the bright side, Petty is a top-100 caliber prospect in MLB and a part of the Reds’ long-term plans.

Following his most recent big league appearance, Petty discussed what he had learned from his two bad days in the big leagues this year.

“I think what I’ve been doing has been working,” Petty said. “I just had a couple of bad outings. That happens to everybody. I’m ready to show what I’m truly capable of. Sometimes, all you really need is the simplicity. I tried to get everything down pat. Just be competitive in the zone. The stuff is good. The stuff is going to play at any level. Just trust it and work the zone.”

Reds pitching coach Derek Johnson said, “Anything he experiences now is going to help him. He’s an amped up kid to begin with. You don’t want to take that away from him. We’re trying to balance it the best we can.”

One more note on Petty: When I went to Louisville to watch Chase Burns on Wednesday, Petty was on the top step of the dugout the entire game and wearing a “Chase Burns” jersey-shirt to cheer him on.

Petty should have a bright future, but Francona has also alluded to the fact that the Reds’ starting pitching depth isn’t in a good spot. Recently, Francona said, “If we had something (an injury) happen, it’s not good.” That was before Hunter Greene went back on the IL.

Greene (groin) is rehabbing in Arizona and has no timeline to return, Carson Spiers (shoulder) hasn’t started a rehab assignment yet, Rhett Lowder (oblique) is still in the early stages of his return to the mound and Julian Aguiar and Brandon Williamson are recovering from Tommy John.

Because of where the Reds are at from a pitching depth perspective, they recently acquired recently DFAd swingman/starter Brian Van Belle from the Red Sox for cash considerations. The former undrafted free agent who has never been on top prospect lists was recently called up by the Red Sox and then DFAd before he was able to make his big league debut.

The 28-year-old had a 2.29 ERA with the Triple-A affiliate of the Red Sox this year. In his two most recent appearances at any level, one Triple-A game in late May and another in early June, Van Belle allowed one total run across 14 combined innings.

Adding Van Belle to the 40-man roster was a petty straightforward move for the Reds. They were very low on starting pitching depth, and Van Belle was available, healthy and stretched out as a starter.

Petty is getting the first shot in the rotation, but adding Van Belle (who was OK in Triple-A last year and posted a 4.42 ERA) signaled how much the Reds felt like they needed pitching help. More likely than not, Van Belle will factor in at some point in some role.

There’s also the Chase Burns of it all. If the Reds had a playoff game tonight and needed someone else to pitch, Burns would likely be the guy. He’s more than good enough to get big league outs right now.

But it’s not fair to ask him to pitch every fifth day and pitch six-ish innings between now and the end of the season. The Reds are keeping an eye on his innings and his pitches like you would with any pitcher in his first year of pro ball. There’s a chance that Burns debuts this summer. But adding Burns to the big league rotation right now would be an even bigger ask than what the Pirates asked for from Paul Skenes last season.

Even Skenes only pitched in 160 ⅓ total innings between Triple-A and MLB during his first pro season. Burns has already pitched 66 innings this season. A typical half-season for a full-go big league starting pitcher is around 100 innings, and there’s still more than half of the season left to go for the Reds this year. The Reds want Burns to pitch a complete season.

Theoretically, on paper, you could call up Burns and manage his starts very carefully with a low pitch count. But that would kill your bullpen. (It could be much more manageable to do this later in the year around the All-Star break, which starts a stretch where the Reds are off on seven out of nine Thursdays. But that’s just speculation. It might be easiest to manage having Burns pitch out of the bullpen down the stretch run, but that’s also speculation).

We’ll keep monitoring how close Burns is to getting the call-up to the big leagues, but Petty is the more experienced professional pitcher.

If Petty pops like Andrew Abbott did in 2023, then that becomes a season-changing development. Regardless, because of the state of the depth, starting pitching just became the Reds’ biggest need at the trade deadline. Not having five starters can kill your season, which is essentially what happened to the Reds in September of 2021 and August of 2024.

Having Ben Lively saved the Reds in the summer of 2023, but they don’t have that type of experienced swingman/spot starter in the organization.

Fifth-starter/innings eater types who could be available on the trade market include Jake Irvin, Andrew Heaney, Michael Lorenzen, Bailey Falter, Mitchell Parker and Aaron Civale.

Also, would you shift Lyon Richardson back into a starter’s routine? Would you stretch out Brent Suter?

Losing Miley impacts the entire pitching staff.