The state of the Reds' starting rotation

The Cincinnati Reds have invested more into the starting rotation than any other area on the roster. It should be the strength of the team.

In April and for most of May, that played out as the rotation carried the team. As the offense was off to a very slow start, the starting pitchers were the ones leading the Reds to wins.

Over the last month, the Reds have been playing some of their best baseball of the season. Even though they’ve been racking up series wins, the rotation hasn’t even been at its best during that stretch.

“There’s definitely going to be ebbs and flows to a season,” Nick Martinez said. “It’s part of the season. Our offense and defense are playing very well and picking us up in most of these games. Our starting pitching will get grooving again. When we’re all grooving together, that’s when things get really fun.”

With Hunter Greene, Rhett Lowder, Carson Spiers and Wade Miley on the IL, the Reds’ rotation right now consists of All-Star candidate Andrew Abbott, Nick Lodolo, Martinez, Brady Singer and rookie Chase Burns. Abbott has been pitching as well as anyone in baseball, but the rest of the rotation has been more hot-and-cold. Just like an entire batting order won’t stay hot for an entire season, the rotation isn’t firing on all cylinders right now.

That leaves a clear path for the Reds to take the next step. To go on a run, they need their starters to pitch at the level that they were at early on this season. The bright side for the Reds is that seems attainable.

Lodolo has seen his ERA rise from 2.25 to 3.63 since the end of April. He hasn’t recorded an out in the seventh inning or later during that stretch and has battled high pitch counts.

Even though he’s not completely tapping the high ceiling that he has, Lodolo feels positively about the season he’s having.

“I’m pitching a lot more than normal — the art of pitching itself,” Lodolo said. “In certain spots, I’d love to strike a couple more guys out. At the end of the day, I feel more confident in my abilities out there to have different avenues (to get outs) instead of being one dimensional.”

This is a much different version of Lodolo than we’ve ever seen. First, he’s healthier than he has been since 2022. He’s actually able to train between starts instead of focusing on rehab and recovery between starts.

He’s relying on his changeup more than he ever has and is able to pitch to contact more. By pitching to contact in certain situations, his strikeout rate will inevitably go down. But historically, his signature pitch has been the wipeout breaking ball that he snaps for strikeouts. That pitch hasn’t totally clicked yet this season.

“It’s getting better,” Lodolo said. “There are always things that you can do better, but the game is human too. Outside of my rookie year, this is the longest stretch I’ve had being healthy. Knock on wood. I feel good. I feel happy that the work I’ve done so far has carried me so far. At the same time, I have another half to go.”

Martinez was rolling in late April through May as he posted a 2.13 ERA over a six month span. But then he allowed four-plus runs in three of his next four starts. In interviews after those games, he honed in on the theme of focus. He was struggling because he wasn’t executing and was leaving mistake pitches out over the plate.

After a clunker last week vs. the Twins, Martinez campaigned to make two appearances out of the bullpen between his start days.

“That was the adrenaline rush that you’re looking for,” Martinez said. “It makes you aware to simplify things and attack. When you have that mentality, things start to clean up.”

Martinez threw three scoreless innings between those two bullpen appearances. He found some positives in those game that he believes will carry over to his start on Friday.

“To keep your focus for 35 starts is not an easy thing to do,” Martinez said. “Having that awareness — sometimes the focus is not going to be there and you still have to compete. I think I do a good job of that. But being aware of it and correcting it. I feel great. Body feels good. Mind is good.”

Conversations with Singer about his season have focused a lot on command. Mistake pitches combined with some untimely walks led to his bad days, but there have also been nights where he looks like a top-half of the rotation pitcher.

June was his strongest month of the season. He carried a 2.86 ERA through his first four starts of the month. Then on Wednesday against the Yankees, Singer was charged with four runs allowed. But those were really a product of some sloppy defense behind him. Singer looked as crisp as he has all season and struck out a season-high nine batters. He also walked three.

“I felt good,” Singer said. “The stuff was good. Even with the walks, I had some pretty good command. I just had some deep counts and fell behind… I’m definitely getting better than I was earlier in the year with the struggles I was having. I’m making some pitches.”

Abbott’s consistency has been a critical quality for the 2025 Reds. He has a 1.79 ERA, and his combination of competitive spirit with an old school approach is on display in every start.

“He just pitches,” Lodolo said. “He fills up the zone. The changeup has come a long way. It’s fun to watch. He never gives in. You know what you’re going to get.”

Burns was dazzling in his big league debut, showing the tools that should make him an ace down the road. He’s more than ready to give the Reds a good shot to win every time that he takes the mound. But there are also guardrails for a 22-year-old in his first season of professional baseball.

Burns only threw 81 pitches in his big league debut as Terry Francona keeps a close eye on him. Burns has an innings limit this year, and the team wants him to be able to pitch through much if not all of the season.

Derek Johnson said that Burns is able to pitch on four days rest. But right now, the Reds are using the off days on the schedule to their advantage.

“He has been equipped to (do that),” Johnson said. “We’re going to have to do that a bit, but we’re also going to have to be cautious and make sure we’re communicating. ‘How are you feeling? How are you bouncing back?’ We don’t want to put him in any sort of jeopardy. We do have an innings cap we’ll try to adhere to, at least closely. We have some obstacles.”

When asked about the long-term plan with Burns for this season, Francona said that they’ll map out something more specific at the All-Star break. Francona wants to see how everyone’s feeling, including Burns.

For example, whether or not Greene is ready to go after the All-Star break could impact whether or not the Reds would be ready to move to a six-man rotation.

Burns looks on track to pitch on five days rest and pitch in Boston on Monday. Then, because of another off day on the schedule, he could get five more days rest and face the Phillies on Sunday, June 6.

Then, the Reds have a stretch of seven consecutive games before the All-Star break. Will they mix in a spot start against the Marlins or Rockies to buy Burns an extra day?

The next step for Greene is a bullpen that he’s throwing in front of the big league coaching staff on Monday. That will give the Reds more information and more perspective as they shape the plan for Greene’s return. Francona said that Spiers could start a rehab assignment soon. Miley and Lowder are still out for a while.

Looking at the depth, Chase Petty was just called up to fill long relief duty last weekend instead of making a spot start last Saturday that the team probably needed. Still, he’s now this team’s best pitching prospect with Burns now in the big leagues. We’ll certainly see him again at some point. Prospect Jose Franco is intriguing and was just promoted to Triple-A. Brian Van Belle as a swingman on the 40-man roster who the team acquired in a cash deal to improve the depth.

There’s also the approaching trade deadline. Because of the lack of depth, the injuries and the youth in the rotation, the Reds could benefit from adding a fifth-starter type who they could count on every five days during the second half of the season. They’re one injury away from being in a concerning spot. A fifth starter wouldn’t be too expensive to acquire, but getting Greene and Spiers back healthy in July would make that less of a need. The bigger needs could be in the outfield or the bullpen.