The Reds put Chase Petty in a tough position to succeed

Two weeks ago, right before Chase Petty made his big league debut, Terry Francona was asked, “What went into the decision to make this the day for Chase Petty?”

“We have a doubleheader,” Francona said. “We’ve got to start somebody. We think a lot of this kid. Also, it’s his day to pitch, which always helps.”

Petty didn’t arrive to the big leagues on his own timeline. The 22-year-old is the youngest starter to appear in a big league game this season, and he debuted in that game against the Cardinals without much of a track record at the Triple-A level.

Petty allowed nine runs in 2 ⅓ innings in that game vs. St. Louis at Great American Ball Park. It was a learning experience that gave him some things to work on as Petty headed back to Triple-A.

Except Petty only made one more start before returning to the big leagues.

Following Hunter Greene’s groin injury, Petty was the choice to replace him in the Reds’ rotation. Petty’s first start was a start spot. This second call-up was a real shot to show what he could do in the rotation.

Petty allowed four runs and only lasted three innings in Sunday’s 6-0 loss to the Astros. His command was an issue all game. The Reds asked for a lot from a 22-year-old who has only made six starts this year in Triple-A.

Petty, a first-round pick out of high school in the 2021 MLB Draft, should be a good big league pitcher. But the Reds could have put him in a much better position to succeed.

-The Reds could have used their off days and gone the next two weeks with a four-man rotation, save for one spot start on May 17. Francona said that he didn’t want to do that because the Reds’ starters needed the extra days after carrying a lot of innings this season.

-The Reds could have just pitched Abbott on four days rest, had him face the Astros on Sunday and then had Petty’s return to the big leagues come against the lowly White Sox on Tuesday. That would be a much easier landing spot.

-They could have used an opener for Petty, giving him a smoother runway into the game. The Reds have done that before with rookie pitchers, and the Cubs just did that with their top pitching prospect (Cade Horton) on Saturday.

-They also could have given Petty more time to develop in Triple-A and called up a spot starter like Adam Plutko or Randy Wynne. Petty’s command and his confidence in his changeup have clear room to improve.

Currently, Carson Spiers, Wade Miley, Julian Aguiar and Brandon Williamson are on the IL, and Connor Phillips has been moved to the bullpen. With the pitching depth lacking, the Reds called up Petty again this weekend.

Petty has earned his status as a top-100 prospect. There aren’t many pitchers with the pure arm talent that he has, and his ability to establish a fastball in the upper-90s stands out immediately. He mixes that in along with his bread and butter, a sinker-slider combo. He has also been working hard on his changeup, which is a change of pace pitch that he needs to keep hitters off of his fastball, sinker and slider (three more high-velocity pitches).

I’ve heard some comparisons between Petty and former Reds starter Sonny Gray. To peel back the curtain, I was going to write a longer story on this comparison that included Gray’s perspective on Petty following Petty’s debut. I view Petty as a high-upside pitcher with a future in the Reds’ rotation.

But Andrew Abbott made seven starts in Louisville before he got called up in June of 2023. Graham Ashcraft made eight starts in Louisville before he was called up in May of 2022. Brandon Williamson made eight starts in Louisville before May of 2023 when he was called up. All of these pitchers played in college and had more overall high-level experience than Petty did before his big league debut.

The only counter example is Rhett Lowder, who only made one start at the Triple-A level. But he has a rare natural feel as a pure pitcher and was pitching great. In Lowder’s final six starts between Double-A and Triple-A, he had a 0.51 ERA with 34 strikeouts and seven walks.

The Reds have a track record of not calling up top prospects to fill short-term needs in the starting rotation.

Petty threw six no-hit innings in his return to Triple-A last week in between his big league starts. But Petty only threw more than five innings in one of his previous Triple-A starts this year. He was walking two hitters in most of his starts and wasn’t getting a ton of strikeouts. His changeup can be a big difference maker, and he’s working to throw it more.

If Petty kept pitching in Triple-A like he was for another month, then that’s the type of runway that the Reds gave to pitchers like Abbott, Ashcraft and Williamson.

Petty has only pitched in 79 minor league games.

If you include their college careers, Abbott pitched in 119 games before his debut, Ashcraft pitched in 80 (and debuted at 24 years old) and Williamson pitched in 94. Connor Phillips pitched in 88 minor league games before his big league debut. Lyon Richardson pitched in 104.

Nick Lodolo and Hunter Greene pitched in fewer minor league games than Petty did before debuting, but they both had a longer track record of success in the upper-levels of the minor leagues and were coming off of strong, full-length big league spring training before they debuted.

Greene is eligible to return from the IL on May 18. The Reds will need one more start from their fifth starter before the Reds’ ace is able to return to the rotation.