The Reds are asking for a lot from Chase Burns, but he looks ready

Chase Burns is ready to get big league outs, and the Cincinnati Reds didn’t have a fifth starter. As a result, Burns is heading to Cincinnati to make his big league debut with just 13 minor league starts under his belt.

The pace of Burns’ ascent to MLB tells you everything you need to know about him. In a lot of cases, teams would try to create a softer landing spot for a pitcher’s first MLB game. Burns will be facing Aaron Judge’s Yankees.

After watching Burns pitch in Triple-A last Wednesday, he clearly didn’t belong at that level. It didn’t even seem like Burns was cruising or having his best day, but then you look up and he’s throwing seven innings of one-run baseball against the Yankees’ Triple-A team.

But at the time, the Reds weren’t rushing him to the big leagues quite yet. Wade Miley was dependable enough as a fifth starter, and there were ancillary benefits of having Burns continue to pitch in Triple-A.

Then, Miley got hurt. Burns is the next man up.

Burns’ stuff will clearly play at the big league level, but the big question is how many outs he’ll be ready to get and how often he’ll be able to get them. In the current baseball landscape, it’s rare for a pitching prospect to get to the big leagues this quickly and be asked to do this much.

Take Paul Skenes as an example. The best pitching prospect of this generation debuted in the middle of last May. The Pirates managed his innings all season, and Skenes never pitched on four days rest. The Pirates looked for chances to get Skenes an extra sixth day off, and he got an 11-day break built around the All-Star break.

Then late last summer, the Pirates really backed off his usage and had him throwing 82-to-93 pitches in many of his starts down the stretch of the season. In his final two starts of the year, Skenes threw 73 pitches and 23 pitches.

Since 2015, the only college first-round picks to debut in the rotation at their age-22 season and make 10-plus big league starts in their debut season are Skenes, Aaron Nola and Kris Bubic (who’s a bit of an exception as Bubic debuted during 2020 and only threw 50 total innings during the COVID-shortened season).

If the Reds ask Burns to pitch every fifth day and go six-ish innings between now and then end of the season, then that would be a significantly greater ask than any top pitching prospect has seen over the last decade in their first year of pro ball.

But that plan for the rest of the 2025 season is a conversation for another day. Right now, the Reds just need to stack some wins and prevent this season from spiraling away from them.

In 2021, 2023 and 2024, the Reds fell out of the race because they ran out of starting pitching. Burns was the 2025 Reds’ break in case of emergency option, and now it’s his time.

It’s a lot like what happened leading up to Rhett Lowder’s call-up last August. At the end of that month in 2024, the Reds were still trying to cling to their playoff hopes. Andrew Abbott, Hunter Greene and Nick Lodolo were all hurt. Journeymen Casey Kelly and David Buchanan were in the mix. Around that point, David Bell had a series of individual meetings with notable players about trying to keep this team afloat.

Lowder earned his call-up and ended up proving that he was ready. But his promotion was also a response to the run of pitching injuries and a season that was emotionally slipping away from the Reds.

Calling up Burns now should give this team an intangible pick-me-up.

The Reds had five options to fill Miley’s slot in the rotation.

1. Burns

2. Chase Petty. I would have liked to see him get a shot on Saturday. But Terry Francona made it clear that Petty wasn’t getting that shot with how he used the bullpen on Saturday. Instead of going by the book and using Petty as the bulk guy, Francona had Nick Martinez pitch two innings on two days rest and avoided using Petty until the 11th. Petty is a top-100 quality prospect who’s a part of the Reds’ long-term plans. But the way the Reds handled his last two stints in the big leagues showed that they still want to see more from him. Petty was optioned back to Triple-A on Sunday. He’ll be back at some point, but this clearly wasn’t his moment.

3. Brian Van Belle, who was recently acquired in a cash deal with the Red Sox. He’s stretched out to start and is 28, but the former undrafted free agent has no big league experience. You would have been hoping that he’d be able to eat innings just good enough to keep the Reds in games.

4. Veteran Kyle Gibson is a free agent. The 37-year-old posted a 4.24 ERA with the Cardinals in 30 starts in 2024, started this year with the Orioles, posted a 16.78 ERA in four starts, got DFAd and then was briefly with the Rays’ Triple-A team.

5. Trade for a big league starter. This was the least likely option. Outside of rare exceptions and unusual circumstances like the Rafael Devers trade, deals don’t happen until late July.

The Reds went with Burns.

Francona will certainly keep an eye on Burns’ long-term future as he manages the rookie. Burns won’t be out here throwing 120 pitches per start. The big question — one the Reds likely won’t announce because it would give away their game plan — is how long they’re going to allow Burns to pitch into starts.

They’ll have to decide whether or not they want to maximize these upcoming starts from Burns until the rest of the rotation gets healthy, or prioritize keeping enough innings left in the tank for Burns to pitch through the end of the season. The answer to that question will shape whether or not we’ll see carefully managed five inning outings or whether we’ll see Burns unleashed over the next month-or-two.

Looking at the organizational depth chart, Hunter Greene (groin) and Carson Spiers (shoulder) haven’t started a rehab assignment yet but are progressing. They’ll both need some more time but should return this summer. Rhett Lowder (oblique) is a bit further away. Burns, who was slated to be a part of a five-man rotation in Triple-A, could just do that in the big leagues until Greene returns and then have his innings scaled back down.

Or, Burns’ innings could be handled carefully for the rest of the season. If that’s the case and he has shorter starts like Skenes did at different points last year, then that creates an important ask for the Reds’ bullpen to be able to pick up some more of that slack.

I’ve heard that the Reds want Burns to complete this entire season, and the door has even been open for him to end this year in the bullpen if the Reds are in contention. That idea only works if the rotation gets healthier, or if the Reds fortify it via trade (a fifth starter/innings eater still looks like an intriguing trade deadline target).

The best case scenario is that Burns hits the ground running, helps carry the rotation until it gets healthier and then stays in the mix (while throwing innings at a bit of a slower rate) when the rotation gets healthy.

If Burns clicks, then a rotation of Greene, Lodolo, Abbott, Martinez, Singer and Burns looks so good that you could do a six-man rotation. Also, the Reds are off nearly every Thursday after the trade deadline, and the off days and set schedule give them a chance to be more creative managing innings.

In the long run, a rotation of Greene, Lodolo, Abbott, Lowder and Burns is something to build around.

In the short term, the Reds are asking for a lot from Burns. He’s still figuring out things like his pregame warmup routine, and now he’ll be learning those nuances at the big league level for a Reds’ pitching staff that badly needs a spark. The Reds are counting on him, but Burns has the stuff and the mentality to meet the moment.