PHILADELPHIA — Tony Santillan has been the Cincinnati Reds’ most valuable relief pitcher this year.
“He’s so good,” Terry Francona said. “He has been so good. And he will be so good. He just left a fastball (today) in the wrong place.”
Santillan left a fastball right down the middle to Phillies second baseman Bryson Stott in the eighth inning on Sunday. Stott’s two-run homer was the difference in a 3-1 Phillies win, and it was also the difference in the series. Against a team with the starpower that the Phillies have, the margins are very small.
The Reds have shown that they’re a quality team. They’re squarely in the mix for a wild card spot. But if they ever get there, they’ll end up in a place like Philadelphia against a team like the Phillies with pitchers like Ranger Suarez and Zack Wheeler on the mound for the opposing team.
The Reds dropped Game 2 of the series on Saturday as Suarez, a 2024 All-Star, allowed one run in five innings. The Reds put together a few rallies, but they couldn’t come through with the big hit. And like Santillan did one day later, Nick Lodolo threw one fastball that he’d later want back.
On Sunday for Game 3, Wheeler threw a complete game one-hitter with 12 strikeouts and no walks. It was one of the best pitching performances that the Reds have seen in years, and there was nothing that they (or any lineup) could really do.
“He has got all of the weapons,” Francona said. “And obviously he has the last weapon. The compete mode. That was impressive. Hays with a really good swing. We’re trying to make one hit, and we're being competitive. We have a chance. But that's a hard way to win.”
The Phillies’ stars decided this series. On Saturday, it was third baseman Alec Bohm, right fielder Nick Castellanos, Suarez and closer Matt Strahm (all former All-Stars) who swung the game. Sunday was Wheeler’s day.
Austin Hays provided a clutch homer on the lone big swing against Wheeler in the series finale. But ultimately, the Reds just needed more.
The bright spot in the series finale was the bounce back from Chase Burns, who allowed just one run (that scored after he was pulled from the game in the form of an inherited runner) and two hits with seven strikeouts in 4 ⅔ innings as the rookie works on a pitch count.
“He’ll compete,” Francona said. “He didn’t back down. It’s not an easy lineup. He wasn’t commanding it. There’s a lot of pitches. But he did ok.”
In Burns’ previous appearance, he didn’t make it through the first inning as he tipped pitches at Fenway Park. The last week was full of significant tweaks to try to nip that issue in the bud. Burns threw two bullpen sessions with Derek Johnson to make some adjustments, and they worked for Burns on Sunday.
“(We wanted) to go through the motions and make sure I’m not giving any team an advantage,” Burns said. “I feel like it helped clean up my mechanics today… I felt really confident going into it. We knew the small things they were picking up on.”
Burns opened his start on Sunday on shaky ground. He couldn’t seem to find the strike zone against the first two batters he faced, and there were two on and no outs with Bryce Harper at the plate. Burns got Harper to swing through a slider, and then everything seemed to click more into place for him. Burns went on to strike out the next three batters he faced.
“Coming out of Boston, it looked like he was trying to stay away from some contact early,” Francona said. “Then even in fastball counts, he was getting his fastball by their barrel. That should give him some confidence.”
The one knock on this start from Burns was his high pitch count through the first two innings. But while the first two innings required 55 pitches, he recorded 2 ⅔ innings on his next 36 pitches before Francona pulled Burns at 91 total pitches. Burns started doubling up on more fastballs, which he said helped him set up his slider and his changeup.
“They’re a very selective team,” Burns said. “Attacking with the fastball and letting them see it first is huge for me.”
As the Reds carefully manage Burns’ pitches and his innings, Francona had a quick hook again with him.
That brought to the forefront the biggest concern with the current state of the Reds’ roster: the depth. In this case, it was the bullpen depth.
The bullpen had to cover 4 ⅓ innings on Sunday, and every one of them felt high-stress. Unlike the Phillies did on Saturday, the Reds couldn’t consistently play the left-right matchups this weekend because Sam Moll is the only left-on-left specialist on the team.
On Sunday, Scott Barlow and Graham Ashcraft pulled through and got out of some very difficult jams. But the Phillies put pressure on the Reds’ bullpen consistently. Eventually, the dam broke against Santillan.
Emilio Pagán, Santillan and Ashcraft have been a solid 1-2-3 punch. Barlow and Lyon Richardson have had nice years. Sam Moll looks rejuvenated and is back in a high-leverage left-handed specialist role. Brent Suter is very valuable in his long relief role. Francona barely uses Taylor Rogers in what’s been a subpar season for the veteran left-hander. Also, Connor Phillips and Luis Mey plus prospect Zach Maxwell haven’t gotten a shot to show what they can do in high-leverage spots.
Overall, the numbers for the Reds’ bullpen aren’t great. While Ashcraft and Barlow have been nice, every team could use another dynamic setup reliever. And whether it’s Rogers or a trade deadline addition, the lack of multiple reliable situational left-handed relievers continues to show up in the cat and mouse game.
This weekend, the Reds also asked for a lot from their position player depth.
A day off for TJ Friedl on Saturday meant that Santiago Espinal hit second in Game 2 of the series. Espinal has looked a lot better over the last week and had two hits on Saturday, but he has a .528 OPS since May 20.
Rece Hinds has been used as a platoon outfielder who starts vs. LHP, but he’s 0-for-18 with 12 strikeouts vs. LHP this season. Last year, he was 2-for-18 in the big leagues vs. LHP. Hinds struck out in both of his at-bats on Saturday vs. Suarez before Friedl replaced him in the lineup.
Hinds was in the lineup on Saturday against the lefty over Christian Encarnacion-Strand, who has a .125 OPS (!) vs. LHP this season. Francona confirmed that CES wasn’t in the lineup on Saturday because of what the reverse splits have shown.
With Noelvi Marte back off the IL, CES now also likely won’t be playing as much against righties, either. Marte received a day off on Sunday, so CES was back at third base. CES hasn’t played that position very well this season, and he nearly cost the Reds the game with an error in the seventh inning. Francona then pulled CES from the game in the bottom of the eighth inning.
“Part of my thinking was I thought if it was a tie game, they might go to Strahm (a left-hander),” Francona said. “We put a better defender in (Espinal) and a guy who hits lefties.”
The Reds are a solid team that plays hard and has a clear identity. But there’s another step to take. They’re under-the-radar details, but they were in the forefront against a Phillies’ team that’s right where the Reds are trying to get to.
Two things would help Reds. They need a strong 8th inning/closer arm. Aroldis Chapman would fill the bill….and give another LH arm.
And they could use a better RH OF bat. CES should be in LV getting regular at bats.
He needs time to develop.
Good for Austin Hays at least ... giving Philly what for.