Reds farm system superlatives

Most likely to make the Opening Day roster: Starting pitcher Rhett Lowder

Of all of the potential conversations that could take place during spring training, I’d love to be a fly on the wall when Wade Miley sits down with Rhett Lowder to talk pitching.

They have a lot in common. They work very fast, move pitches around the strike zone, don’t chase strikeouts and have a great feel for the art of pitching. They’re also both go-with-the-flow type people who will probably get along very well.

Some of the similarities between Lowder and Miley are the traits that allowed Lowder to hit the ground running in the big leagues last August. Lowder has a rare feel for the game for a young pitcher, thinks pitches and at-bats ahead of the game and has confidence throwing any pitch for a strike in any count.

There’s also a lot that a pitcher like Miley could show Lowder to take the next step.

Lowder spoke a lot last season about game planning, pitch selection, reading swings and making quick in-game adjustments. Those are all strengths of Miley.

Lowder will be in a competition for the fifth starter spot that includes the favorite Andrew Abbott, Graham Ashcraft and Carson Spiers. Injuries take place every spring and could open up another spot.

I don’t have Lowder on my 26-man roster projection, but I feel confident in penciling him in for 18-plus big league starts in 2025.

Most likely to be the Reds’ top prospect (and a top-30 prospect in baseball) in 12 months: Infielder Sal Stewart

If Stewart didn’t suffer a fluky wrist injury last summer that kept him out for the entire second half of the season, then he wouldn’t be flying under the radar as much as he seems to be.

Last year, Stewart was the oldest-looking 20-year-old that I’ve ever seen on a baseball field. In spring training, he got rave reviews for his focus and understanding of exactly what he needed to do to have a big year. “It’s an eye of the tiger mentality,” farm director Jeremy Farrell told me.

Stewart is a natural hitter with real pop, underrated athleticism and a very mature approach at the plate. He knows what pitch he’s looking for, and he doesn’t let the game speed him up. He’s the type of guy that every team will be asking about at the trade deadline, and the Reds will be unlikely to be willing to part with.

He’ll be in big league camp and looks on track to open the year in Double-A.

Most likely to September call ups: Starting pitchers Chase Burns and Chase Petty

Chase Burns hasn’t thrown a professional pitch yet, and Chase Petty is 21-years-old (Hunter Greene didn’t even debut until age 22). Burns could be on a similar track to the one that Lowder was on last season, and Petty finished last year in Triple-A.

They’re both likely pieces of the Reds’ long-term rotation, and their mound presence should make them both quick risers through the system.

Reds scouts said that Burns pitches like a “big hairy monster” with a 102 fastball and as much emotion as you’ll see on the mound. He has to improve his command, pitch mix, consistency and the subtleties of pitching that Lowder has been working on. But Burns’ fastball, slider (arguably the best in last year’s draft) and fire drew the Reds to him in last year’s draft. He told Reds scouts that he goes into “blackout mode.”

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Petty, who ESPN recently ranked as a top-100 prospect in baseball, has as much confidence as any Reds’ pitching prospect I’ve seen recently. He embraces the fact that he’s considered to be “undersized,” is a great athlete and pitches with a lot of personality. He was a first-round pick in 2021 because he threw a fastball that was 102 mph at the time, but now he’s more known for his sinker, slider and changeup.

If the Reds have the same injury luck in the rotation that they had in 2023 and 2024, then Burns and Petty could also both be rotation candidates late in the season.

Imagine that it’s September and the Reds are competing for a playoff spot. The Reds’ bullpen doesn’t have a lot of depth right now, and let’s say that the group needs some help for the stretch run.

Would the Reds call up two pitchers without much minor league experience who could make up for it with their mound presence, big fastballs and a promising secondary pitch?

The prospect we’ll learn the most about in 2025: Infielder Cam Collier

The 20-year-old was one of the youngest players in High-A last season and posted a solid .798 OPS on a very good Dayton Dragons team. There’s no doubting his ability as a pull-side power hitter, and he figured out how to tap into his raw power last season as he hit 20 homers.

It will be very interesting to see what the next step looks like for Collier.

Consistency has always been the talking point with Collier, who has had great hot streaks and terrible slumps during his two-year professional career. He has gone through an adjustment process, figuring out what it takes to play every day across a full season. He has spoken about learning lessons from big leaguers like Michael Harris and Lawrence Butler.

Collier was incredibly young when his professional career started and faced a steep learning curve. He took incremental steps last season, and the Reds want to see him make another jump in 2025 now that he has a good amount of professional baseball experience under his belt.

We’ll learn a lot this year about the player that Collier is. Is he a slugging third baseman who continues to build on his feel at the plate? Or is he a first baseman who plays subpar defense and has to hit homers to make an impact?

Most interesting to watch in spring training: Shortstop Edwin Arroyo

Before he suffered a season-ending shoulder injury, Edwin Arroyo’s 2024 spring training felt a lot like Matt McLain’s spring training from 2022. Arroyo wasn’t competing for a spot on the big league roster and wasn’t a big leaguer yet. But he looked like he belonged.

It’ll be interesting to see how much that carries over after missing a full year, and it will be interesting to see how much he was able to grow athletically since we last saw him on the field. Arroyo can be an elite defender, and his approach at the plate lets him see the ball for a long time and use the entire field.

As the 21-year-old continues to develop, he has the upside to become anything from a center fielder who hits 20 homers to an elite defensive shortstop who hits for average. It’ll be fun to track the decisions that he and the Reds make surrounding the type of player that he’ll strive to become.

Most compelling guys to watch on the spring training back fields: Catcher Alfredo Duno, shortstop Sammy Stafura and outfielder Hector Rodriguez (who will start the spring in big league camp).

Duno hit the best home run that I saw on the Reds’ spring training back fields last season, muscling an opposite field shot over the right field fence. ESPN recently ranked him as a top-100 prospect. Back in 2023, as I was interviewing Reds executives in the Dominican Republic about Elly De La Cruz before his debut before he made his debut, they spoke about Duno as the “next guy” coming from that pipeline.

Duno’s breakout season would have taken place last year, but an injury limited him to 32 games.

There’s no question about his power. He has been described as a “big, physical presence with ridiculous strength.” Zac Taylor would love to have an athlete like Duno be the Bengals’ starting left guard for the next decade.

Duno has dealt with injuries in each of the last two seasons, and he’s working to prove that he can stick at catcher. He has impressed Reds coaches with the way he carries himself, the degree to which he has improved his English, the way that he cares about defense and his attention to detail. All of that has to translate more behind the plate in 2025.

Stafura is arguably the best athlete in the organization. While Arroyo has more of a wiry build, Stafura looks like a wide receiver, has great footwork and is a bonafide shortstop with great speed. He hit .255 with a .754 OPS in Low-A last season, and the plan has always been to build around Stafura’s physical tools and develop his overall game in the organization.

As a “cold weather” prospect who played high school baseball in New York, Stafura is getting to spend more time on the field and is making up for some time that California and Florida based prospects had when they were in high school.

Hector Rodriguez was notably the Reds’ only outfield prospect who received an invite to big league camp, which shows something about where he stacks up on the organizational depth chart. He has some experience against higher-level competition in the Dominican WInter League over the last two seasons, and he’s known as a very aggressive hitter who can tap into some power on pitches that land outside of the strike zone.

Most in need of a bounce back: Connor Phillips, Carlos Jorge, Lyon Richardson

Less heralded prospects who are most likely to make quick rises up through the system: starter Luke Holman, starter Adam Serinowski, infielder Peyton Stovall

Most needed to click in Triple-A this year in case the Reds need to tap into that depth: Tyler Callihan

Most impressive A-ball highlight reels: Shortstop Tyson Lewis, pitcher/infielder Sheng-En Lin