Projecting the Reds' starting lineup for 2025

During Terry Francona’s tenure as the Cleveland Guardians’ manager, he used a lot of different types of leadoff hitters.

He put stars there, including Francisco Lindor and Steven Kwan. He put old-school leadoff types who run and get on base, including Michael Bourn and Myles Straw. For a few stretches, he put his best on-base guy in the leadoff spot, regardless of that hitter’s other attributes. First base slugger Carlos Santana was Francona’s leadoff hitter for a while, which was Francona’s biggest outlier at that spot.

There are a few trends within Francona’s lineups in Cleveland. He loved having a contact hitter like Amed Rosario hitting second. Not surprisingly, he put his power hitters in the middle-third of the lineup. Jose Ramirez, a dynamic switch hitter, typically hit third. Generally, he showed preference to contact hitters and impact defenders when there were major position battles.

Francona stressed during this past winter meetings that you can’t really put a lineup together until you get a feel for the roster i

n spring training. But let’s take a crack at it.

First, the lineup against right-handed pitchers.

The foundation is Matt McLain, Elly De La Cruz and Spencer Steer, batting in any particular order.

I’ve been looking for ways to get McLain into the leadoff spot. He works polished, consistent at-bats, and he was the Reds’ most reliable hitter in 2023. He’s fast, and he’s a good guy to have ahead of De La Cruz on the base paths. Strikeouts are a part of McLain’s game, but he’s a strong right-handed bat who can dissuade teams from bringing in a left-hander for the top of the order. You want McLain getting more at-bats than any Reds player aside from De La Cruz, and the leadoff spot helps accomplish that goal.

I go back-and-forth between a top of the order that has TJ Friedl-McLain-De La Cruz and one that’s McLain-De La Cruz-Steer. This debate will probably get sorted out in the spring based on how dynamic Friedl looks at the plate coming off of an injury-riddled season.

Friedl was an ideal leadoff hitter in 2023. He had standout chase rates and whiff rates, took his walks, worked very quality at-bats and showed some pop. Last year, limited due to some injuries that wore him down, Friedl started selling out for some more pull power. He started to get his speed back in September. Where he’s at will be one of the stories of the spring and will go a long way in determining the structure of the lineup (he’ll be the center fielder regardless).

For now, I’ll keep McLain in the leadoff spot (even though De La Cruz is a comp for Ramirez, who hit third under Francona), bat Elly second and stick Steer in the No. 3 spot.

Several Reds see Steer as a potential multi-time All-Star and one of the most underrated young players in baseball, and Francona is high on him as a player. Steer has 30-home run power, but he never sells out for it. He’s great against left-handed pitching, and he can punish teams that bring in a left-hander to face De La Cruz.

Ideally, Steer would be able to start at first base, but the Reds haven’t added a true outfielder yet. If Gavin Lux shows some promise in left, then Steer can slide to first and give the Reds a better defensive lineup.

So that’s McLain-De La Cruz-Steer so far.

Lux is probably the Reds’ next-best hitter against right-handed pitching. The Reds clearly believe in his second half breakout last summer, when he started swinging more aggressively and tapped into more power. Lux is probably a platoon player, but he’s probably their second-best left-handed hitter behind De La Cruz (Friedl and Jake Fraley have a case).

Lux could go in the cleanup spot, but I’d put more weight in giving De La Cruz some right-handed backup and separating the left-handed hitters. The Reds’ next-best right-handed hitter is Tyler Stephenson, so he can slot in fourth with Lux hitting fifth. (Having Friedl hit lower in the order instead of leading off also lets the Reds get to Stephenson and Lux more quickly in the lineup).

We’re at McLain-De La Cruz-Steer-Stephenson-Lux.

You want a right-handed hitter behind Lux, which brings us to the two biggest variables this spring: Noelvi Marte and Christian Encarnacion-Strand. Both players will have to earn their spot on the big league roster following disappointing 2024 seasons. Both players also play third base, which is the most wide open position on the roster. One of the reasons to add a right-handed bat this winter would have been giving the Reds some insurance in case these guys aren’t ready to play this spring, but the Reds haven’t made that move yet.

Ideally, Marte slots in here as a high-average hitter or CES slots in as the Reds’ best right-handed power bat. The best version of the Reds’ lineup includes a breakout season from one of them. But since both players still have so much to prove, it’s hard to put them into a lineup projection heading into spring training.

Right now, I’m batting Jeimer Candelario sixth. Another one of the biggest questions of the spring revolves around Candelario’s ability to play third base. He was limited to first base for most of last season.

We’re at McLain-De La Cruz-Steer-Stephenson-Lux-Candelario.

Put Jake Fraley in the No. 7 spot. He didn’t get enough credit last offseason for reporting to camp full-go coming off of toe surgery. It also wasn’t discussed enough how much his family situation was weighing on him. He also lost 10 pounds in May due to bronchitis, and his season never got off the ground. Fraley is a solid platoon outfielder with pop, and he’s a sneaky pick for a breakthrough season.

The eighth spot is the trickiest, and it’s wide open. The candidates are Marte, CES, Santiago Espinal and Will Benson (it’s also where the ideal free agent right-handed hitting outfielder would slot in, but the Reds haven’t added that guy yet).

Each player here has questions. We’ve covered Marte and CES. Will Benson nearly got sent down several times last season, was on the bench for all of September and has to cut down on his strikeouts and also improve his defense to belong in the lineup.

Right now, I’m going with Espinal for his defense, giving the Reds their best possible defensive lineup. Having him in there allows Candelario to stick at first base and Lux to be the designated hitter. It prevents the Reds from having to play someone out of position. Espinal posted a 77 OPS+ last season (100 is average), but he heated up down the stretch and isn’t a liability in the lineup by any means.

Again, an outfield addition over the next month could take his place (with Steer moving to third base, or Steer taking first base and Candelario sliding over to third), as could a young guy with more upside who has a good spring.

Friedl deserves to hit higher than ninth, but Lux lengthens out the lineup and gives the Reds a better LHH power option in the middle third. Friedl can basically be the second leadoff guy.

So here’s the lineup.

1. Matt McLain (second base)

2. Elly De La Cruz (shortstop)

3. Spencer Steer (left field)

4. Tyler Stephenson (catcher)

5. Gavin Lux (DH)

6. Jeimer Candelario (first base)

7. Jake Fraley (right field)

8. Santiago Espinal (third base)

9. TJ Friedl (center field)

Against left-handed pitching, Fraley and Lux have been at their best as platoon players. That opens up two spots in the lineup.

Stuart Fairchild, who plays great defense and posted a strong .786 OPS vs. LHP last season, likely slots into one of them. The other spot comes down to Marte, CES or a guy like Rece Hinds or Blake Dunn, unless the Reds go out and get the veteran right-handed hitting outfielder that the roster could really use.

Right now, I’d give the edge in this group to CES because of how few power hitting right-handed hitting options the Reds have on the roster. Another option is starting Jose Trevino at catcher against LHP and having Stephenson DH on those days.

Here’s the lineup vs. LHP

1. Matt McLain (second base)

2. Elly De La Cruz (shortstop)

3. Spencer Steer (left field)

4. Tyler Stephenson (catcher)

5. Jeimer Candelario (DH)

6. CES (first base)

7. Santiago Espinal (third base)

8. Stuart Fairchild (right field)

9. TJ Friedl (center field)

Or

1. Matt McLain (second base)

2. Elly De La Cruz (shortstop)

3. Spencer Steer (left field)

4. Tyler Stephenson (DH)

5. Jeimer Candelario (first base)

6. Santiago Espinal (third base)

7. Stuart Fairchild (right field)

8. Jose Trevino (catcher)

9. TJ Friedl (center field)

Looking at the bench, Trevino and Fairchild have spots accounted for (Fairchild will likely be competing with Dunn and Cooper Bowman for that spot as the RHH backup CF option, but Fairchild is by far the most established).

I put CES in the lineup vs. LHP, and he’ll be competing for a regular spot in the lineup. His ability to give the Reds a bench power bat who can come in and swing for a homer gives him a potential role if he doesn’t stick as a starter. That ability gives him a higher floor than Marte, and CES is a safer bet to produce than Hinds (who could also claim this spot).

There’s one spot left for Marte, Will Benson, Bowman, Hinds and Dunn. Because of Benson’s ability to draw walks, his defensive versatility in the outfield, his positive clubhouse presence and his upside, I’ll go with him. Still, it makes more sense to find a right-handed hitting outfielder to slot in here between now and the start of the season.

Bench: CES, Stuart Fairchild, Will Benson, Jose Trevino.

Rounding out this roster projection with the pitching staff.

The bullpen currently lacks experience. The return of a pitcher like Buck Farmer or Lucas Sims makes a lot of sense. There’s also value in having a LHP with a power arm like Justin Wilson gave the Reds last season, and free agents Jalen Beeks, Tim Mayza and AJ Minter have the skill set to fit that role.

Rotation: Hunter Greene, Brady Singer, Nick Lodolo, Andrew Abbott, Nick Martinez

Bubble: Graham Ashcraft, Rhett Lowder, Carson Spiers

Bullpen: Alexis Díaz, Tony Santillan, Sam Moll, Emilio Pagán, Brent Suter, Graham Ashcraft, Carson Spiers, free agent addition TBD

Bubble: Zach Maxwell, Yosver Zulueta, Casey Legumina, Luis Mey, Bryan Shaw, Lyon Richardson