It’s no surprise that the Reds doubled down on their rotation this offseason

In the 2007 ALCS, Terry Francona’s Boston Red Sox were down 2-1 in the series vs. Cleveland. Heading into a pivotal Game 4, Francona faced a big decision.

The entire city of Boston seemingly wanted Francona to start Josh Beckett, one of the best pitchers in baseball at the time, on three days rest for the fourth game of the series to try to even the score. Francona took a lot of heat for starting Tim Wakefield instead and saving Beckett for Game 5.

The Red Sox lost Game 4, falling behind 3-1 in the series. But Beckett pitched a gem in Game 5. The Red Sox went on to win the next two games, completing the comeback. Beckett was named the ALCS MVP, and the Red Sox went on to win the World Series.

“He really took exception when there was talk about changes in the rotation,” former Red Sox pitching coach John Farrell said in Francona’s biography, Francona: The Red Sox Years. “He fought that and felt strongly about it. He got to understand the mindset of a pitcher. The five-day routine, how ingrained they are in their routine and what day of the week it is, and he was a staunch believer that everyone who goes to the mound is going to have to pitch well if we were going to win.”

Go through Francona’s career, and you’ll see a manager who prioritizes stability in the rotation above just about everything else.

“One thing I wasn't good at: If I had the rotation set up and (GM Theo Epstein) wanted to change it, inevitably there would be an argument,” Francona said in his biography. “As a manager, you have to pay so much attention to everything regarding pitchers. I knew the best way to ruin your team was to (mess) your bullpen up.”

He still feels the same way, and the state of the Reds’ starting rotation makes that crystal clear.

“The old adage is if you think you have enough pitching, go get more,” Francona said in December at the winter meetings. “That’s a good thing.”

This winter, the Reds have been operating with limited resources. Heading into the offseason, a power outfield bat seemed like the Reds’ biggest need. But how the Reds used the resources available to them shows what they really prioritized.

Pitching, pitching, pitching.

Their two biggest moves this winter were trading Jonathan India for Brady Singer and giving Nick Martinez the qualifying offer. On paper, both look like value moves.

Around MLB this offseason, Frankie Montas signed a two-year deal for $34 million with the Mets, Luis Severino signed a three-year deal for $67 million with the Athletics and Nathan Eovaldi signed a three-year deal for $75 million with the Rangers.

The Reds will pay Singer just $8.75 million this year, and they traded a backup infielder in India to acquire him.

On paper, the $21 million qualifying offer for Martinez seems like a lot of money. But giving it to him was the right move. Had Martinez hit the open market, he likely would have signed a lucrative multi-year deal similar to Montas’, Severino’s or Eovaldi’s. And if Martinez had signed elsewhere, the Reds would have received a comp pick. The Reds just used a comp pick as the centerpiece of the Gavin Lux trade, showing the value that those picks carry.

It caught me by surprise that Martinez accepted the qualifying offer because of the state of the pitching market, but he decided to bet on himself having an even better 2025 with the chance to spend a complete season in the rotation.

Martinez ranked 17th among all big league pitchers in WAR last season. A $21 million deal with no long-term commitment after that for that pitcher is a good piece of business.

The Reds could have rolled last year’s rotation into 2025, going with Hunter Greene, Andrew Abbott, Nick Lodolo, Graham Ashcraft and Rhett Lowder. But that group would have had very little depth. Ashcraft is probably better suited for the bullpen. Lowder was rushed to the big leagues last year. He excelled, but starting the year in Triple-A could help keep him fresh for the stretch run.

In 2021, 2022, 2023 and 2024, the Reds ran out of pitching in the final two months of the season. Last year, Fernando Cruz joined the rotation for a stretch. Alan Busenitz, David Buchanan and Brandon Leibrandt all had days where they were the only pitcher available to throw bulk innings. Brandon Williamson rushed back from his rehab following shoulder surgery and joined the rotation until he tore his UCL.

As Francona said, “the best way to ruin your team was to (mess) your bullpen up.” Alexis Díaz, Cruz, Carson Spiers, Buck Farmer and Justin Wilson all looked gassed at different points down the stretch.

The lineup is still flawed, but the Reds are betting on having a role player like Santiago Espinal or an unproven player like Noelvi Marte or Christian Encarnacion-Strand in the lineup regularly won’t tank their season. They weren’t willing to make that bet with the rotation.

I’d rather have Blake Dunn on the field now and then than needing a pitcher who has no business pitching in the big leagues appearing in 10-to-15 games over the course of the season.

The Reds can count on more durability from their rotation this season, and the rotation is much more experienced than it has been over the last few seasons. There’s also still a good amount of upside.

Hunter Greene is still just 25 and hasn’t had his best season yet.

It’s a big offseason for Nick Lodolo, whose career has been defined by injuries, and Andrew Abbott, who has faded significantly down the stretch in both of his big league seasons. The Reds stressed to each of them the importance of their offseason programs. Building up more strength and athleticism, like Greene did heading into 2024, can help them stay at their best over a full season.

There's no question about what the best versions of Lodolo and Abbott can contribute. They just have to stay healthy, and the Reds have a plan in place to keep them on the mound.

Lowder’s upside is obvious.

Martinez finished the 2024 season on the best run of his career. He finally got to spend a sustained amount of time in the rotation and get into a starting pitcher’s rhythm. What he showed the Reds during that stretch has Francona already slotting Martinez into the Opening Day rotation.

Singer will be a fascinating project for Derek Johnson. The Reds were drawn to Singer’s durability, and he has appeared in at least 27 games in each of the last four seasons. He has a solid 4.30 ERA during that stretch, but he has had hot and cold spells.

Since Singer’s college days, he has had a terrific sinker/slider combination. He still hasn’t found a third pitch that he trusts.

“His effectiveness with mostly those two pitches thus far tells you those two pitches are really good,” former Royals manager Mike Matheney said in 2021, according to The Athletic. “The changeup is going to unlock more success for Brady’s sinker and slider. For long-term success, and to make his other pitches better, it’s a very important piece.”

Singer’s changeup became a bit of a saga in Kansas City. Every spring, he’d talk about its progress. And every season (aside from one strong stretch in 2023), he’d shy away from it.

“They’ve really stressed working on the changeup,” Royals manager Matt Quatraro said in February of 2023, according to MLB.com. “As teams look to use their rosters more, they’ll stack it with lefties against him. He’s going to have to continue to evolve to get lefties out.”

Last year, the Royals experimented with using a new sweeper to replace Singer’s changeup, but it didn’t pan out. Johnson has to accomplish what the Royals weren’t able to and show Singer and pitch that really works versus left-handed hitters.

If that happens, then Singer becomes a No. 2 starting pitcher.

The rotation looks like the strength of the Reds, and they’ve done what they can to significantly raise the floor of that group.

They always tell you to follow the money, and the way that the Reds have spent this winter shows that they’ve prioritized pitching.