Hunter Greene's injury setback has a ripple effect

On Sunday morning, everything looked on track for Hunter Greene to start a rehab assignment in Triple-A on Tuesday. Greene had just completed a bullpen session, which was the final task on his rehab schedule. Immediately after, Derek Johnson said that Greene looked healthy and confirmed the planned rehab assignment.

A lot changed in the next 30 hours.

He went on to receive an MRI, but Terry Francona early Monday afternoon said that Greene was just getting that “out of an abundance of caution.”

Then around 5 p.m. on Monday, Greene pulled a few reporters aside and said that he wasn’t going on his previously scheduled rehab assignment. Greene said that he felt soreness in “the same area” (he suffered a Grade One groin strain in May, and he also later received an epidural shot in his back). He said that he was day-to-day and then went on to play catch in the outfield at GABP. There’s no more specific timeline for his return, and Greene did not take questions from reporters.

All of a sudden, there’s a new moving piece in a rotation that already has a ton of questions right now.

The Reds’ series over the weekend in Philadelphia was a reminder that in big series, big time performances from frontline starting pitchers are critical. Greene’s ceiling is as high as anybody’s, and the Reds’ best path to a playoff series win if/when they get there is the frontline starters on the Reds’ roster living up to their potential.

Greene has been a big part of that plan. But he also missed two months in 2023 due to hip stiffness and a month in 2024 due to an elbow contusion and swelling. The lingering injuries have become a part of his story.

Greene first felt the groin injury in Atlanta in early May. He missed two weeks due to a Grade One groin strain and then returned on May 23, but he only threw four innings in his first game back. Greene’s third start back from the IL looked like a big step forward in real time, but then he left the game after the fifth inning because he felt the symptoms from the initial groin injury returning. Following that game on June 3, Greene went back on the IL.

He received a second opinion before beginning a rehab program in Arizona at the Reds’ spring training complex in the middle of June. Greene threw a live bullpen last week in Boston and said that he felt strong, but then he suffered an apparent setback.

Looking at the Reds’ rotation, Andrew Abbott, Nick Martinez, Nick Lodolo and Brady Singer have been a rock solid group of four all season.

Chase Burns has had two electric starts mixed in with the bad day at Fenway Park. He’s the Reds’ fifth starter, but it’s not so cut and dry. He has thrown 81, 33 and 91 pitches in his three big league starts. He’s on an innings limit this season, and the Reds want to space out those innings so that he can get through the entire season without having to be shut down.

It’s not as simple as Burns being able to pitch every fifth day and go seven innings between now and the end of the season. The Reds will have to be creative with their plan for him between now and the end of the season. Burns belongs in the rotation, but there will also need to be guardrails.

Greene’s pending return was supposed to help the Reds manage that. Now, with Greene out for at least a bit longer, a brighter spotlight shifts over to Carson Spiers. Spiers is scheduled to throw four innings on a rehab assignment in Triple-A on Tuesday, and Spiers is expected to return in July.

Spiers went on the IL in April with a shoulder injury, but he’s well ahead of schedule.

“I wanted to get out here and pitch,” Spiers said. “That’s who I am. I hated that I had the injury. I like to compete. I like to pitch.”

Spiers opened the year in the Reds’ rotation but was optioned to Triple-A when Andrew Abbott returned from the IL in early April. Spiers quickly returned to the bullpen to fill a long relief role, and he pitched out of the bullpen on April 19.

“I felt great that day,” Spiers said. “It was my first outing out of the pen in the season. I felt it a little bit, but then the adrenaline hits. When the adrenaline was hitting, it felt great. I was throwing as hard as I have this season. The third and fourth inning, every pitch, I felt like I had a knife stabbing me in the back of the shoulder.”

Spiers went to Arizona to rehab, and he credits Reds Director, Rehabilitation and Physical Therapy Eric Gonzalez for making a big impact. Spiers changed his between start routine and his recovery process, making both of them more specialized to his strengths and weaknesses.

“Working with Eric Gonzalez in Arizona was the best thing for my career,” Spiers said. “I feel so much stronger.”

Pretty soon, Spiers should be available as the sixth starter on the depth chart. Right now, that would be Chase Petty or Brian Van Belle (or a bullpen game). That’s notable this week because the Reds have an interesting decision to make with Burns.

As an example for reference, Paul Skenes never pitched on four days rest last season in Pittsburgh. The Pirates always worked in an extra day to help manage his innings. The Reds haven’t revealed their plan for Burns in that regard yet. The Reds have been able to use off days over the last few weeks to give Burns an extra day of rest between starts. This week would be the first time where they could ask him to pitch on four days rest. Do the Reds do that, or do they add in a spot starter this weekend?

When Spiers is ready, does he go back into the rotation? Do they use a six-man rotation? Do they piggyback Burns and Spiers? Do they look for a way to give Burns a bit of a longer breather between some of his starts during the second half of the season? Do they do that with a spot starter this week?

There are decisions to make. Not having Greene obviously has a big impact at the top of the roster as the Reds miss out on starting an All-Star caliber pitcher. Not having Greene also has a ripple effect that impacts the depth.