How the Reds' lineup looks after a flurry of roster moves

The most concerning part of Matt McLain’s 2024 season wasn’t that he injured his shoulder diving for a ball and needed surgery. The most concerning part was what went on with his oblique.

After suffering a season-ending oblique injury in 2023, he aggravated it on the first day of spring training. Then as he was building up toward his return in September, he tweaked his oblique again and ended up missing the entire season.

McLain is a very tightly wound athlete, and that’s where his power comes from. During the offseason, he went through a specific workout program to loosen up.

But in just the first week of the regular season this year, he tweaked his hamstring. On Tuesday, the Reds placed McLain on the IL with a slight left hamstring strain (during my time covering the team, I can’t find another example of the term slight being used in an official transaction).

There’s not much else to say. McLain is a tremendous player, and the team isn’t nearly the same without him. He dragged the Reds to a win on the second game of this season, providing a reminder of how transcendent he can be when he’s healthy.

“We know what kind of impact player he is,” TJ Friedl said after that game. “We definitely missed him for the whole season last year. It was tough. But having him back on the field healthy like himself, today was just a glimpse of what he can do every day.”

Hamstring injuries are tricky. Last year, Friedl rushed back from a hamstring injury and didn’t miss too much time, but he didn’t have his legs all the way back under him for a while. Because of the injury, Friedl had to change the way that he played.

It’s still too early to know how McLain’s injury will impact him down the road. But every game that he misses counts.

The Reds desperately need some more power, and McLain is their second-best home run hitter behind Elly De La Cruz. Infield defense had been a strength of the Reds this year, and McLain’s work at second base was as impressive as anybody’s. The infield won’t have nearly the same collective range until he’s back.

Maybe this injury only becomes a blip on the radar for this Reds’ season. But they’re already 4-7, and their road to get back to .500 just got more difficult.

In the short term, Santiago Espinal and Gavin Lux should split time at second base. Lux will always be in the lineup vs. RHP, and he also has the flexibility to move around and play third and left. As the cleanup hitter behind De La Cruz, Lux becomes even more important in the lineup as a potential run producer with the pop that the Reds desperately need more of. It’s been a slow start to the year for Lux, who’s hitting .194 entering Tuesday’s game.

The Reds gave up a lot for Lux, hoping that he’d help take the offense to another level this year. He was a top-20 hitter in baseball during the second half of last season, and the Reds could desperately use that type of hot stretch.

Will Benson and Noelvi Marte get called up

The gap between Triple-A and MLB has never been wider. Because of new roster limits, more minor league pitching injuries and a variety of other reasons, there’s less correlation between success in Triple-A and success in MLB. There has been a lot of research done on this topic, and this article sums it up and also links to that research.

On an anecdotal level, look at Nick Martini. He started last season on the Reds’ roster, was lost at the plate and was optioned to Triple-A. He got very hot at that level, and the Reds hoped that would translate back to the big league level when they called him back up. It didn’t.

You can’t know what to expect from Benson and Marte. They did everything you’d want to see during the first week of the Triple-A season. Benson’s opposite field power was particularly encouraging, and he has spoken about that as the harbinger for when he’s really locked in at the plate. Marte is staying through the ball and looks balanced at the plate.

But in 2024, Benson and Marte were two of the worst every day players in MLB. Benson had a -1.4 WAR season, and Marte posted a -1.8 WAR.

They both made big adjustments in the spring. Terry Francona challenged each of them during spring training. His message on each of them was that they have talent and will get a chance to earn the roles that they’ve had (and succeeded in during 2023). But they’d have to show a lot of improvement to get back there.

They both were pretty early cuts from big league camp during spring training and weren’t in the mix for spots on the Opening Day roster. But the short-handed Reds need help now, and the Reds don’t have much Triple-A depth outside of the guys on their 40-man roster.

Benson and Marte both were on the 40-man roster, which made them easy call-ups. The other options on the 40-man were Rece Hinds and Tyler Callihan, who aren’t as hot right now and were also early cuts in camp.

The Reds are hoping that they can catch lightning in a bottle and build on that going forward with two players in Benson and Marte who have plenty of tools but a lot left to work on. It’s an upside play.

Francona is a new manager with a fresh set of eyes. This week, we’ll really learn how he ranks the players in the mix for the final few spots in the lineup based on who he puts on the field.

The Reds currently have 14 position players on the roster. That number will go back to 13 this weekend when they activate Andrew Abbott. Benson and Marte weren’t in the lineup on Tuesday (maybe they’re en route to San Francisco), and there’s just one day game on Wednesday before Thursday’s off day. Abbott will be ready to pitch on Friday.

Benson and Marte really won’t have the time to prove something between now and the next roster cut. But it’s possible that Benson in particular has shown enough at Triple-A as his big adjustments clicked to merit a spot on the roster going forward.

The lineup going forward

TJ Friedl, Elly De La Cruz, Gavin Lux, Jeimer Candelario, CES and Jose Trevino will remain regulars in the lineup. That’s six spots.

Spencer Steer has shown some signs of progress as he gets his timing back in order. I get the sense that his struggles were more swing and mechanics related more than they were health related. He’s still off to a very slow start, but I’d expect him to stay in the lineup as the DH on most days. That’s seven spots.

That leaves two spots in the lineup for Blake Dunn, Jake Fraley, Jacob Hurtubise, Santiago Espinal, Will Benson and Noelvi Marte. Over the last two days, those spots have gone to Dunn and Fraley.

Fraley is mired in a deep slump, and he’s also dealing with side pain. Through the first two weeks of the season, Francona has consistently stuck with Fraley in the lineup vs. RHP despite Fraley’s struggles.

It’s been a surprise that Espinal hasn’t been in the lineup for the last two days. Maybe that’s because they’d prefer having a faster outfielder than Lux playing the outfield in the Giants’ big ball park. Lux has been at second in each of the last two games.

Espinal’s solid defense, bat-to-ball skills and overall consistent play will make him a big part of this rotation until McLain returns. He could also get more reps at third base going forward as Candelario plays subpar defense. The plan for the 2025 season has Espinal in a bigger role than he played last season.

It makes sense to give Benson a spot in the lineup over the next week to see what he can do. He has the highest upside as a hitter of this group of players. You can’t be certain about how his success in Triple-A will translate into MLB, but Benson still has more of a track record of success at the big league level than Dunn, Hurtubise and Marte.

It’s worth noting that Dunn and Hurtubise both beat out Benson for roster spots coming out of spring training, and Dunn and Hurtubise haven’t had much of a chance yet to show what they can do. They’re gritty players who add more value defensively, but the Reds’ lineup might be able to benefit right now more from some of Benson’s pop.

But they each just did win a competition for a roster spot over Benson. Francona is about to show how he really feels about these players, along with Fraley.

Marte is trickier to get into the lineup unless the Reds bench Candelario. CES has been hitting better than his numbers show, and Steer is the DH. Marte’s biggest issue has been his throwing, and he probably hasn’t had enough time yet to prove his defense at third base is very consistent.