How much money do the Reds plan to spend this winter?

Every year, the payroll number given from Cincinnati Reds’ ownership to the front office turns into what feels like an artificial hard cap. The front office is told what it has to work with, and it’s had to get creative.

To get a sense of what the planning process looks like, go back to some recent examples. Heading into 2023, the Reds traded Kyle Farmer (projected to make around $5 million the following season) for a prospect and used that $5 million to afford a temporary shortstop in Kevin Newman in a trade and backup catcher Luke Maile on the free agent market.

At the deadline in 2025, the Reds added reliever Taylor Rogers into the Ke’Bryan Hayes trade as a way to make the money line up, offset salaries and avoid adding too much payroll.

Why the Reds’ payroll has been as rigid as it is is a conversation for another day (I fear we’ll have plenty of time to talk about this during a potential lockout next year). But today, let’s look at this from the front office’s perspective.

Nick Krall announced on Tuesday: “Our 2026 payroll will be around the same as our payroll from 2025.”

According to USA Today, the Reds ranked 22nd in MLB last season with a payroll of around $115 million. The final number is tough to pin down due to some in the weeds accounting, but different projections estimate that the Reds’ payroll was in the $115-120 million range last season.

According to USA Today, the Brewers’ payroll was a few hundred thousand dollars behind the Reds (FanGraphs’ projection has the Brewers’ payroll about $4 million greater than the Reds, but in the same range), the Cardinals were around $140 million, the Cubs were around $195 million and the Dodgers and Mets were well over $300 million.

On Wednesday, the Reds announced that they declined the 2026 team options on Austin Hays, Scott Barlow and Brent Suter. Those moves provide the final piece in projecting the amount of money that the Reds plan to spend this offseason.

My math has the Reds at around $96 million worth of commitments on the books for 2026. Using that $115-120 million range as a compass, that leaves the Reds with about $20-to-$25 million to work with this winter.

Here’s a detailed look at how it all breaks down with comparisons between 2025 and 2026.

Last year.

This year

And here’s a player-by-player look at what the Reds have on the books right now.

You’ll notice a few big differences in how the pie graphs line up. First, look at what the Reds will be paying third-to-sixth year players in arbitration this year. These numbers are still projections for now, but Brady Singer ($12 million), Tyler Stephenson ($6.4 million), Gavin Lux, Spencer Steer, TJ Friedl and Nick Lodolo (each around four million) and Tony Santillan, Matt McLain, Will Benson, Sam Moll and Graham Ashcraft (each around two million) are all going to get raises.

Last year, Reds players received $27 million in arbitration.

Now, with more players eligible for arbitration and with others further along in arbitration (arbitration salaries go up for players in each year of that process), the Reds are estimated to be paying around $46 million in arbitration to players this year.

That’s $19 million fewer dollars that the Reds have to apply to other parts of the roster than what they had last year.

Now, the non-tender deadline is on Nov. 21. On that day, the Reds have the option to cut a player eligible for arbitration and get that projected salary off the books. For example, in 2023, the Reds non-tendered Nick Senzel and chose to make him a free agent instead of keeping him under a contract that was estimated to pay him $3 million. As a result, the Reds freed up that $3 million to use elsewhere.

The other big difference is the amount of dead money that the Reds will have on the books heading into 2026.

Usually, this category is filled by players who had buyouts on team options that get declined (that included Jakob Junis, Brent Suter and Luke Maile last year, and that group includes Scott Barlow, Suter and Austin Hays in 2026).

But this year, the Reds enter the winter with Jeimer Candelario’s entire salary on the books as dead weight.

The Candelario move was Krall’s worst during his five-plus years in charge of Reds’ baseball operations. Heading into 2024, Candelario signed a three-year deal for $45 million through 2026 with a team option for 2027 that also included a $3 million buyout.

The Reds DFAd Candelario last June. He posted a -1.6 WAR and a .660 OPS in 134 games with the Reds.

“You have to look at it as a sunk cost if he’s not going to help you,” Krall said last June. “We’re in a better spot with the players we have here.”

Having Candelario still on the books is just a crusher for a Reds’ team that can’t outspend its mistakes.

Looking forward, the Reds need a left-handed reliever. They have multiple spots up for grabs in a bullpen that currently is consisted of Santillan, Ashcraft, new piece Keegan Thompson and a collection of rookies and prospects (it’s worth noting that Connor Phillips had a fantastic stretch run to the season and has proven the most out of this group).

After cutting Santiago Espinal, the Reds don’t have enough middle infield depth.

And then there’s the elephant in the room — the lack of power in the middle of the lineup. With cleanup hitter Austin Hays as well as Miguel Andujar hitting free agency, that’s even more of a glaring need right now than it was during last season.

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While you’re here, please check out the latest episode of Power Stacks, our Reds podcast with Brian Giesenschlag. We took mailbag questions and evaluated the state of the Reds’ bullpen, took a look at the market of available players this offseason and caught up on the Reds’ offseason news.