How much better will the Reds' outfield be in 2025?

GOODYEAR, Ariz. — Outside of the Terry Francona factor, the biggest difference in Reds’ spring training this year compared to the last few years is how much of the depth chart is unsettled.

Call it competition. Call it depth. Call it upside, or call it uncertainty. But good luck trying to guess Francona’s Opening Day lineup outside of Elly De La Cruz at shortstop, Matt McLain at second base, Tyler Stephenson at catcher and TJ Friedl in center field.

Third base is a wide open battle, which I covered at length earlier this week (link). The corner outfield spots look like a blank slate.

“(The outfield) is overall solid,” Nick Krall said. “We’ll wait to see when we get into games. Friedl is in good shape. Hays is coming in and working hard to get better. Fraley looks great. Stu (Fairchild) looks great. We’ve got some guys who were up-and-down last year. Benson is getting after it. We’ll have to let it play itself out.”

The Reds had the third-worst outfield WAR in MLB last season. Whether or not it gets any better in 2025 will be one of the biggest factors that makes or breaks this season. Each one of these players has a question attached to their names.

Spencer Steer: How’s his throwing shoulder?

If he were fully healthy, then this conversation about the corner outfield spots would start with Spencer Steer. He’s a foundational piece of the young core, a potential future All-Star and an old school player who’s growing into more and more power.

The issue is that Steer is dealing with a shoulder injury that he gutted through it last year. The Reds have not had him throw during the opening stretch of spring training. Francona said that Steer should begin a throwing program soon.

In the meantime, Steer will be DHing and playing first base. Eventually, he’ll regularly be back in the mix in left field.

Jake Fraley: Can he return to hitting for power in 2025?

Fraley was one of the best platoon hitting outfielders in baseball in 2023 before he broke his toe. Then in 2024, he had a very strange season. Fraley quietly hit a solid .277, but he was zapped of his power and was just an average hitter against RHP. He was moved down to the bottom-third of the lineup down the stretch. He also graded out as an average defender.

Fraley dealt with a lot last year. He didn’t have a normal offseason entering 2024 as he rehabbed the toe injury. His daughter was diagnosed with leukemia, which weighed heavily on him.

Fraley reported to camp this spring looking noticeably slimmer and more athletic. Now that he’s stronger and now that “both of (his) feet are on the ground” with his daughter doing better, he hopes to get back to being the player he was in 2023.

“I can focus on my job again,” Fraley said. “It’s super refreshing. By the grace of God, we’re in the place that we’re in that allows me to be in that place again. I learned so much last year. Having both of my feet in and there’s nothing I can’t get through. Not only get through, but thrive through.”

Austin Hays: What does he look like with the kidney infection behind him, and what can he do vs. RHP?

Austin Hays is also hopeful that he’s about to begin a bounceback season. He was an All-Star in 2023. Playing for an Orioles team that had a home ballpark with a massive wall in left field, he only hit 16 homers that year as he played in a pitcher’s park. He had been in GABP, he would have hit 28 homers.

At some point during the 2024 season, Hays started dealing with a kidney infection that led to fatigue, blurry vision and a lot of other symptoms that made it hard for him to play.

As Hays struggled, Orioles manager Brandon Hyde made Hays a platoon player who only started against left-handed pitching. He ended up being traded at the deadline, and the symptoms of the kidney infection got worse and worse during his stint in Philadelphia.

Hays, 29, recovered during the offseason. He enters 2025 with a major chip on his shoulder as he plays on a prove-it one-year deal.

When healthy, Hays is a solid defender with a terrific arm, a self-described “fundamental player” who plays very hard and as a hitter focuses on hitting line drives to all parts of the field and produces a lot of doubles.

“I still feel really young,” Hays said. “I’m starting the prime of my career.”

Hays has historically hit better vs. LHP than RHP, and the splits were massive in 2024 (.818 OPS vs. LHP and .699 vs. RHP). In 2023, Hays’ splits were a lot closer together (.788 OPS vs. .763).

Hays is working to prove that he’s an every day player, and he’s competing for that opportunity.

If the Reds played a game today, with Steer not throwing yet, then the outfield would probably be Friedl, Fraley and Hays vs. RHP and Friedl, Hays and Stuart Fairchild (.786 OPS vs. LHP with great defense last year) vs. LHP. This is a better defensive group than the Reds had last year, but there will be questions about the ability for this group to produce at the plate.

Gavin Lux: What does he look like in the outfield?

Now, enter Gavin Lux (a left-handed hitter who’s most likely a platoon player). He was the best hitter that the Reds added this winter. He missed the Dodgers’ 2023 season with a torn ACL and had a slow start to 2024 as he got his legs back under him. He exploded in the second half, posting an awesome .899 OPS over his final 66 games.

There’s definitely a place in the Reds’ lineup for a guy who was good enough to start on the best team in baseball last season. But with McLain at second base, Lux won’t be able to play his best position. He’ll get a shot to show what he can do at third and has the best range of the Reds’ candidates to play that position, but he’ll have to show that he’s a more consistent thrower.

He’s expected to get some work in the outfield later this spring. GABP isn’t a tough outfield to play, and having Lux in the lineup vs. RHP in one of the outfield spots has the potential to do a lot for the offense as a whole.

Francona said that out of fairness to Lux, the Reds won’t have Lux take reps at four positions in the first week of the spring. Right now, Lux is playing second and third base during spring training drills. Outfield will likely get added onto his plate later on, and the Reds will need to see how he looks there before they can commit to playing him there.

Lux, Fraley and Hays all have the potential to be regulars in the outfield, and they all have some upside. But none of them were impact outfielders last year, and the Reds are doing some “hoping” with each of them.

Will Benson, others competing for a roster spot

Last spring, Benson was locked into one of these corner outfield spots. But now following a poor 2024 season, he enters this year in a different position than he was in 12 months ago.

“This is an important spring for him,” Francona said. “You’re going to see him play a lot out of respect to his situation. He’s going to get a lot of at-bats. He was disappointed. It almost felt like he felt like he let people down. You’ve been around Will. You kind of want to adopt him. He’s that kind of guy. He’s easy to pull for.”

There’s still upside there with Benson, but can’t struggle the way he did last year to make contact on fastballs right down the middle.

Behind Friedl, Steer, Fraley, Hays and Lux, there’s a group of outfielders competing for roster spots that includes Benson, Stuart Fairchild, Blake Dunn, Cooper Bowman, Rece Hinds and Jacob Hurtubise.

For more of Charlie’s coverage of spring training, stay posted here. Also, look out for some upcoming features with Cincinnati Magazine.