Evaluating what the Reds have in the bullpen and what could change

Since June 1, the Cincinnati Reds’ bullpen has only been charged with six total losses. The Reds are mostly winning and losing with the performances of their rotation, but still it feels like middle and low-leverage relief is an area where the Reds need more production.

If the Reds are going to make the playoffs, then they’re going to need to go on a run. And if the Reds are going to go on a run, then there will be games where the Reds are on a winning streak, their top relievers will be unavailable and the bottom of the bullpen depth chart will be called upon to close out a game.

For example, last Sunday, Graham Ashcraft and Emilio Pagán were unavailable to pitch. The plan was for Brent Suter to pitch two high-leverage innings. Suter has had a very good season in his role, and he also suffered from some bad calls in this game against the Mets. But ultimately, Suter made a mistake pitch and was charged with the loss.

Having Tony Santillan and Pagán in the eighth and ninth inning roles has been a strength of the Reds this season. Where would they be without those guys? But the rest of the bullpen depth chart remains very fluid with several questions remaining. Some of those questions could be addressed with a trade deadline addition or two.

Let’s start with what the Reds have.

The bullpen depth chart has a clear big three.

Emilio Pagán

Heading into 2025, Pagán insisted that the Reds didn’t get to see the real him last season because Pagán was battling injuries. He has been proven correct. He’s tied for sixth in MLB in saves, and his most recent one against the Mets was an example of how he can get any hitter out. He’s not Josh Hader or Edwin Díaz, but he’s a good closer. While Pagán on paper could appear to be a trade candidate, he’s very valuable to the Reds.

Tony Santillan

Santillan is tied for the league lead in appearances and always pitches when the game is on the line. For the most part, Terry Francona has kept Santillan’s role very static and used him in the eighth inning. But Santillan will also enter the game earlier if the team is in a game-deciding jam. He’s having a great year.

Graham Ashcraft

The move to the bullpen has been a net success, and Ashcraft’s importance to the bullpen was on display when the team struggled filling his role when Ashcraft was on the IL. But he’s still working on totally tapping into the upside that he carries as a reliever, and he has room to grow.

Still, Ashcraft is solidified as a high-leverage piece. Typically, Francona’s game plan is to use Ashcraft in an important spot as the first reliever in the middle of a game when the team is in a jam or use him as the seventh inning guy.

He said that he’s still figuring out what he needs to do physically as a reliever.

“I’m trying to dial everything in,” Ashcraft said. “Understanding where my body is at and when I can use one day or whatnot. I feel like I’m there when it comes to my arm and knowing if I’m able to pitch or not. It’s also my lower body. This (injury) was kind of a good thing for me to go through. Nobody wants to go on the IL. But I didn’t realize how tired my lower half was. It ended up hurting me a little bit. It was a good thing to go through to know to make sure we’re taking care of everything.”

He says the next step is cutting down on walks. Ashcraft is getting back to the best version of himself and is being a ground ball pitcher, but command can help him be more reliable.

“Just go out there and attack,” Ashcraft said. “Especially with guys on. I know I’m a groundball guy. If there’s a chance where we can get force plays, just attack and get them to beat the ball into the ground.”

Regardless of what the Reds do at the deadline, he’ll have a big role down the stretch this season.

After Pagán, Santillan and Ashcraft, the bullpen depth chart is fluid.

Scott Barlow

Because he doesn’t throw that hard, Barlow is often misunderstood as a reliever. He’s a pitcher who can get the big strikeout but can struggle with command. There are some parallels between Barlow and former Red Lucas Sims. Barlow has done a good job of getting chase and limiting hard contact, but he also has one of the worst walk rates in MLB. Overall, he has been an important piece of the bullpen puzzle and has been having a good year.

“I made an adjustment with my slider, with the pitch thought,” Barlow said. “I feel like early on in the season, the slider wasn’t getting as much swing and miss. That small tweak helped a lot. I’m also using the curve more.”

Barlow fills three roles in the bullpen. He’s the fireman who Francona asks to provide a big strikeout. He’s also the next guy behind Ashcraft in the high-leverage pecking order, so Barlow pitches the seventh when a high-leverage reliever is unavailable. Barlow is also a durable piece who ranks sixth in MLB in appearances, so he’s also just always seemingly an option to pitch. Mostly, Barlow has been pitching in the high-stress jams recently.

“I’m almost expecting to be put in those situations,” Barlow said. “Getting those reps, I’m not letting the heart rate get too high. You try to be calm and collected. It’s a pressure cooker in there. It’s been fun.”

Barlow had a bit of a slow start, but he has been very solid for the past two months. You can never have enough of these types of pitchers.

Because of Barlow’s versatility, he has a pretty solidified role.

Sam Moll

His role changed very quickly. Moll got called up from Triple-A in early July, gave a terrific performance in his debut and then all of a sudden was the go-to left-on-left reliever.

That’s partially a product of how much Taylor Rogers has struggled this season. But Francona is showing faith in Moll. Earlier this season, Lyon Richardson or Barlow got more chances to face lefties than Rogers or Suter did. Now, Moll is pretty comfortably the left-on-left guard. He also fills some lower leverage innings in down games, which isn’t what he does best.

Moll made an adjustment in Triple-A that he feels good about.

“I was trying to raise the arm slot a little bit,” Moll said. “I’m getting more energy going through home plate instead of spinning off. For me, that’s always a problem. I’m a rotational pitcher. When it becomes too much of a rotational thing, it throws some things off. Once I’m staying through the pitches with a higher arm slot, it makes the shapes more consistent. I tried not to chase too many metrics, but it got the intended result.”

It’ll be really interesting to see how Moll’s role evolves. He’s at his best in a role where he’s as close to a left-handed one out guy as you can be with the new rules. Francona clearly sees some positives as he calls upon Moll in notable spots. Moll versus a lefty has become one of Francona’s go-to high-leverage options, but Moll has to continue to improve against right-handers and also make more of an impact in games like Monday’s where the team needs him to log some more outs.

Brent Suter

Aside from Pagán and Santillan, no reliever has saved the team more this year than Suter. His versatility, constant availability and tools versus left-handed and right-handed hitters make him one of the best long relievers in MLB.

While Suter has had success, Francona has only used him as a high-leverage guy a handful of times. One of those games was Sunday in New York on a day where the bullpen didn’t have a ton of options. That game showed that Suter is ahead of Richardson and Rogers on the high-leverage depth chart. But that high-leverage role hasn’t been Suter’s strong suit during his career because he hasn’t been asked to be as much of a matchup left-on-left pitcher.

Lyon Richardson

A month ago, during a stretch where Ashcraft was on the IL, Richardson was the Reds’ seventh-inning guy. Francona said that Richardson had earned the high-leverage role. But then, during a stretch where Richardson was pitching almost every other day, he started to hit a bit of a rookie wall. Over the last month, his ERA has risen from 1.85 to 3.90.

Richardson has considerably fallen down the bullpen depth chart, which was clear as Richardson only warmed up in the bullpen and didn’t enter a game in New York. Against the Nationals last night, with Suter only available to throw an inning, Richardson was asked to be the long man but struggled throwing strikes and only completed an inning.

Taylor Rogers

Trading for Rogers was an aggressive move, but it hasn’t been working out for the Reds. Rogers has been healthy all year, but he has only pitched 30 ⅔ innings (fewer than Richardson). There are entire series where Rogers doesn’t make an appearance. Left-handers have a .747 OPS against him, giving him essentially even left-right splits. He really struggles entering in the middle of an inning with inherited runners.

Francona has essentially used Rogers when the team needs to fill an inning in a down game. An exception was last Saturday vs. the Mets, but Rogers walked the two left-handed hitters he faced.

The prospects

Last month, I wrote that the Reds needed to give their rookie relievers and their prospects a real shot before the trade deadline so that they could really know what they had. Richardson has received that chance. But Connor Phillips and Luis Mey were sent down, and Zach Maxwell hasn’t debuted yet.

Phillips, Mey and Maxwell are three of the most talented arms in the organization. They also have to prove that their command has improved. There’s a world where they’re getting big outs for the Reds in September, and there’s a world where they struggle solidifying a role. They’re all very interesting pieces.

Chase Burns

Burns won’t be able to throw seven innings every five days between now and the end of the season. But right now, his spot in the rotation is very secure. Carson Spiers had a setback recently, Hunter Greene hasn’t started a rehab assignment recently and Rhett Lowder and Wade Miley are out for a while. Still, when the rotation gets healthy, moving Burns to the bullpen is an intriguing option.

Nick Martinez

Similar to Burns, Martinez is a lock to stay in the rotation right now because the Reds only have five healthy starters. But when the rotation gets healthier, there has been talk of using Martinez in a “rover” role where he pitches bulk innings in games where the Reds have the lead. He’s as talented as any Reds reliever and would be trusted in any spot.

Trade candidates

There are two paths the Reds could take: The one they took in 2021 and 2023, or the one they took in 2012.

In 2021, Luis Cessa, Justin Wilson and Mychal Givens significantly raised the floor of a bad Reds bullpen. In 2023, Sam Moll gave the Reds a style of pitcher that the bullpen lacked and quickly found a role in the Reds’ bullpen.

These guys weren’t big names, but they helped. They also didn’t cost too much on the trade market.

The Reds’ evaluation of Moll in 2025 will be an important one as they consider the importance of adding another under the radar left-handed specialist. Left-handers Danny Coulombe (Twins), Caleb Ferguson (Pirates), Jose Ferrer (Nationals), Angel Zerpa (Royals), Dylan Lee (Braves), Reid Detmers (Angels) and Garrett Cleavinger (Rays) could all bolster the Reds’ left-handed bullpen depth and let Francona play the matchups more often in the middle innings.

Back in 2012, the Reds added a big name high-leverage reliever in Jonathan Broxton. These are riskier moves because of how much volatility there is with any reliever’s productivity, but there are notable high-leverage options on the trade market who could slot right in next to Santillan and Pagán.

Cade Smith (Guardians), Griffin Jax (Twins), David Bednar (Pirates), Dennis Santana (Pirates) and Kyle Finnegan (Nationals) are some options in that market.

Reliever trades are always risky, but these are pitchers who would be on the mound for some of the biggest moments of the Reds’ season.

My favorite one of the group is Jax, who’s under contract through 2027 and ranks in the top percentile in MLB in chase rate, whiff rate and strikeout rate while also posting a very good walk rate. He also has good velocity and would give the bullpen a different style of late-game weapon.