Establishing a depth chart for the Reds’ bullpen

Terry Francona had his first in-depth conversation with Emilio Pagán during the Reds’ caravan in January. Francona told the reliever, “By the end of the season, you’ll be exhausted.”

Francona has known all along that Pagán would be playing a big role in this bullpen. He pitched Pagán in the first two games of the Reds’ season-opening series, and Pagán warmed up in the bullpen in the series finale.

What Francona couldn’t have known yet was that Pagán would be on the verge of becoming the Reds’ ninth inning guy by the end of the first weekend of the season.

Francona isn’t naming a closer. But after Pagán got the save on Saturday, he was warming up in the bullpen on Sunday and it looked like he would have gotten the ninth inning had the Reds taken the lead.

“They’re growing into those roles when they pitch,” Francona said. “That’s just what it is. Especially being new. When you break and you don’t have your closer, you have to rethink some things. That’s just common sense.”

This is almost uncharted territory for Francona, who has had an established star closer on his roster for his entire managerial career going back to Jeff Brantley in the 1990s. Between Brantley, Keith Foulke, Jonathan Papelbon, Cody Allen, Brad Hand and Emmanuel Clase, Francona had certainty in the ninth inning.

He recognized that he wouldn't have that this season due to a poor spring from Alexis Díaz. Now with Díaz on the IL with a hamstring injury and no timeline to return, Francona is piecing together this bullpen.

While Pagán appears to be becoming a frequent option for the ninth inning, Tony Santillan looks like he’s at the top of the bullpen depth chart. Francona said, “Right now, Santillan looks like the guy when we need to put the fire out, he may be that guy.”

Santillan pitched a scoreless eighth inning on Opening Day with the Reds up by a run. He faced a pocket of the Giants lineup that had two left-handed hitters, and Francona put some extra faith in Santillan to handle those tougher matchups. Then on Saturday, Santillan pitched a scoreless seventh inning with the Reds up by a run.

This is the role that Tejay Antone had in 2021 and that Díaz had in 2022. If the game plays out a certain way, then Santillan could easily be in the mix for saves in the ninth innings. Francona has a ton of confidence in him.

Emilio Pagán is also in this top tier of relievers in the 2025 Reds bullpen.

Scott Barlow, who signed a one-year deal with the Reds during the winter, is the other reliever who entered the season with his name written in pen for high leverage situations. Barlow has reworked his mechanics, gained velocity on his fastball and developed a strong pitch to pair with two breaking pitches that consistently force swings and misses. His deception is a good change of pace compared to Santillan and Pagán.

While Barlow has looked pretty good, he was still released by the Guardians last year and has to prove to the league that he can stick in this role.

Behind Santillan, Pagán and Barlow, the Reds’ bullpen needs some help. Ian Gibaut slotted in as the fourth right-hander in this pecking order on Opening Day, and he blew the save in a poor season debut.

This is where Graham Ashcraft could slot in going forward.

Francona didn’t pitch Ashcraft in the ninth on Opening Day because it wouldn’t have been fair to ask Ashcraft to go in for the save in the first relief appearance of his professional career. Ashcraft made his bullpen debut on Saturday and threw a terrific scoreless eighth inning in a game the Reds led by a run.

Before Ashcraft started warming up, he recognized that he was breathing way harder than he should have been. He had to go through a process to slow his breathing down before he began his warmup routine.

“It was the most adrenaline rush I’ve ever had in a baseball game. It was pretty fun,” Ashcraft said.

He threw a scoreless inning in the Reds’ 3-2 win by forcing a groundout and a double play. Ashcraft is a ground ball pitcher when he’s at his best, and he unleashed one powerful cutter after another in his bullpen debut.

“The adrenaline is pumping when you know you’ve got one,” Ashcraft said. “That’s how I went after it. Let it rip and leave it all out there on the field.”

“He knew he was going one,” Francona said. “We wanted to have him let it eat. And he did.”

Ashcraft said that he and the other relievers are still figuring out how Francona is going to deploy them this season. Ashcraft said that he could be in the mix as a “long relief type guy.” But if he’s not in the game by the time the middle innings role around, he knows to be ready to fire away as a high-leverage arm.

Ashcraft has embraced his move to the bullpen. If he sticks and makes an impact in high-leverage spots, then that completely changes the complexion of the Reds’ pitching staff without Díaz.

If Ashcraft clicks, then he could be this team’s closer in no time. He has the upside to make an impact in the latter innings. Only two relief pitchers in MLB throw a cutter like his, and they’re both former All-Stars.

Ashcraft was ahead of Ian Gibaut on the bullpen depth chart on Saturday. Gibaut had a really nice bounce back game on Sunday, throwing strikes, being aggressive with his fastball and looking like the guy who was a setup reliever in 2023 and had a good spring this year. But in an ideal world, because of Ashcraft’s upside that he showed on Saturday, the depth chart stays this way and Gibaut slots in as a durable middle reliever.

We’ve discussed Santillan, Pagán, Barlow, Ashcraft and Gibaut. We haven’t gotten to the three left-handers in the bullpen, which is a reflection of how the Giants series played out.

On paper, Taylor Rogers should be a high-leverage piece. The Reds are paying him $6 million, he posted a 2.40 ERA last year and he has closing experience. But Rogers only pitched in one game against the Giants. He entered a game that the Reds were trailing, only faced four hitters and immediately got pulled (he was in the game to face a pocket of hitters that included two left-handers).

The actions here showed where Rogers currently slots into the bullpen mix. After he had a rough spring, he was used as a situational low leverage left-hander. He’ll have to work his way up.

In the season opener, Rogers could have been a factor against 8-9-1 in the Giants’ lineup, a stretch that included two left-handed hitters. But he didn’t make an appearance, and Santillan faced those hitters in the eighth inning on Thursday. Rogers also didn’t replace Gibaut after the blown save to get the final out against LHH Mike Yastrzemski.

That opportunity on Opening Day went to Sam Moll, who’s the Reds’ best left-handed pitcher vs. left-handed hitters but has always struggled vs. right-handers. Moll also had a rocky spring and didn’t pitch in a leverage situation over the weekend. He might be used in a left-handed-one-out-guy role as much as you’ll see in the three-batter minimum era.

Brent Suter is one of the more reliable long relievers in MLB, and he threw a scoreless ninth on Sunday as the Reds trailed by three runs.