Building a Reds trade deadline watch list

The Reds have played their best baseball during the stretches this season where the lineup has benefited from an extra boost. For spurts, Austin Hays, Will Benson, Christian Encarnacion-Strand, Jake Fraley and Noelvi Marte have gotten incredibly hot. Those stretches haven’t lasted, but they’ve been meaningful for a Reds team that has been looking for more power since the end of the 2021 season.

Everyone knows how much one extra bat could do for the Reds, who were 2.5 games out of the playoff picture. It’s hard to know what to expect during the second half of the season from most of the hitters in the bottom half of the Reds’ lineup. Also, TJ Friedl and Elly De La Cruz have had to create a disproportionate amount of the offense this season.

The Reds have been interested in adding that extra bat in the recent past. While they haven’t officially set their course of the 2025 deadline — how they play could impact their level of aggressiveness, especially with their interest in trading for a “rental” player — they’ll be open to it and looking. The Gavin Lux trade set that precedent as the Reds dealt a draft pick plus a solid prospect for him in January. There were also talks about adding Luis Robert Jr. during the offseason, which would have been an aggressive “buy” move.

It’s unrealistic to expect a trade to happen before late July. That’s just how the MLB trade market works with few exceptions (like the Red Sox being determined to get rid of Rafael Devers). Between now and the end of July, the Reds will learn a lot more about how much consistency they can expect from guys like Hays (from an injury perspective), Benson, CES, Fraley and Marte (when he returns from the IL).

They’ll also learn where they stand in the NL Wild Card mix. How the Reds played in the last two weeks of July in 2024 (a bad stretch for the team) shaped the decisions they ended up making at the end of the month. A poor July could lead to that trend repeating in 2025.

Right now, though, they’re set up to explore being buyers. I’ve started to put together a watch list for potential deadline targets.

I started with right-handed outfielders/third basemen on sellers or potential sellers with at least 50 at-bats and an OPS above .700, sorted by xWOBA (which measures a hitter’s skill and ability to create quality contact). If you could design in a lab the type of player that the Reds would benefit from adding, this would be it because of how left-handed heavy the lineup is. Here are some potential available options from that group.

Adell, Myers, Ward and Call stood out among. They’re all mostly inexpensive and under contract for multiple seasons.

Adell makes very quality power contact and plays center field (he struggles with swing and miss and at-bat quality). Myers has been a late breakout player in Miami who plays terrific defense and makes consistent hard contact (that doesn’t quite translate to raw power. He also broke his ankle reacting to an ejection at GABP last year). Ward has a longer track record but a lower ceiling. He has a very strong barrel rate and doesn’t chase, but he strikes out a lot. Call works terrific at-bats and has been productive but doesn’t make as much hard contact.

Then, there are players who don’t meet one of the thresholds for the previous group but check most of the boxes. They could try to buy low on Adolis Garcia or Robert. Rob Refsnyder is only under contract for the season but has the offensive profile the Reds are looking for.

You can also expand the group to include left-handed hitters.

The Red Sox need pitching and have options to fill Wilyer Abreu’s spot. The 25-year-old plays terrific defense, consistently hits the ball hard and is a very productive player (he does battle strikeouts and chase). He already has 13 homers this year.

Addison Barger and Matt Wallner are other intriguing, young options if the Reds are able to deal from a position of stretch to add an impact bat. If the Reds really get hot and are able to trade for a rental player, then Mullins could be a perfect fit.

There are a few more assorted players who I’ll be tracking.

The Reds just saw how much the Tigers need pitching. Spencer Torkelson wasn’t in the Tigers’ initial plans for 2025 as they were going to have Colt Keith play first. Would the Tigers deal Torkelson for one of the Reds’ starters? Because of Spencer Steer and CES’ versatility, the Reds can still add a true first baseman.

Rays first baseman Jonathan Aranda is a 27-year-old who can mash, and the Rays have a track record of staying young and dealing these types of players.

Other names on contending teams (these likely would have to be big leaguer for big leaguer swaps) include Heliot Ramos, Randy Arozarena, Alex Bohm and Jake Meyers. It looks tough to line up a deal between the Reds and one of these contenders, but big leaguer for big leaguer trades have been a trend recently as buyer and sellers labels become less and less clear.

Is there a trade to be made with the Orioles where the Reds deal a starter and get back in return one of their standout young hitters who are under contract for the next several seasons (Coby Mayo, Colton Cowser, Jordan Westburg, Heston Kjerstad, etc)?

I’m also looking at the starting pitching market. Terry Francona has admitted that the Reds’ starting pitching depth isn’t in a good spot right now. Wade Miley is still getting his feet under him coming back from Tommy John surgery, and the top Triple-A starters (Chase Burns and Chase Petty) are very young.

If the Reds are looking for a true fifth starter who could hold the fort down until the rotation gets healthy again, then Jake Irvin, Zack Littell, Andrew Heaney, Michael Lorenzen, Bailey Falter and Mitchell Parker could be options. Unless the Reds deal a big league starter, it wouldn’t really make sense to trade away offensive talent for a starting pitcher with more upside than the pitchers in this group.

The Reds should enter 2026 with Hunter Greene, Nick Lodolo, Andrew Abbott, Brady Singer and Lowder/Burns/Williamson/Aguiar/Spiers/Petty in the rotation, and there wouldn’t really be room for another top-half of the rotation starter. While the long-term rotation depth looks great, the short-term rotation depth doesn’t because Greene, Lowder, Spiers, Aguiar and Williamson are all injured. If the Reds traded a big league starter in July, then it would be a question how they’d fill their rotation for the rest of the season.

The Reds’ farm system is in an OK spot. Third baseman Sal Stewart is the real deal. Hector Rodriguez could be an every day big league outfielder by this time next year. Alfredo Duno is a slugging catcher, which is very hard to find. Shortstop Tyson Lewis has created a ton of buzz. Shortstop Edwin Arroyo’s defense is a known commodity. On the pitching side, Burns and Petty are the prospects with top-half of the rotation potential. Jose Franco, Jose Acuna, Adam Serwinowski and Luke Hayden are all working their way onto the radar.

The bullpen depth is in a fantastic spot and is a strength of the organizational depth chart. Emilio Pagán is outperforming his contract. Tony Santillan and Graham Ashcraft are this bullpen’s present, and Lyon Richardson and Luis Mey are the future. Brent Suter, Scott Barlow (pitching much better in June), Ian Gibaut and Taylor Rogers (still a low leverage guy) have provided a solid combination of versatility and durability. The Reds have six big league quality relievers in Triple-A, including three standout prospects in Mey, Connor Phillips and Zack Maxwell.

The Reds are playing pretty good baseball right now. They have a shot to compete in 2025, and they have a chance to be buyers at the trade deadline. The next six weeks will be a very revealing stretch.