As the Reds DFA Jeimer Candelario, that signing officially becomes Nick Krall's most costly move

The tradition around MLB is that when a closer blows a save, they stand at their locker after the game and make themselves available to the media. They call this “wearing it,” as in wearing it on your sleeve. It’s a sign of accountability after making a mistake.

On Monday at Great American Ball Park, Nick Krall was waiting for the media in front of the team clubhouse as it opened to reporters. Krall was ready to “wear it.”

The Reds had just DFAd Jeimer Candelario, bringing an end to the worst contract that the Reds have signed during Krall’s tenure in charge of the team’s baseball operations. Candelario was just about halfway through a three-year, $45 million deal. The Reds are on the hook for all of it, including over $22 million of dead money.

“You have to look at it as a sunk cost if he’s not going to help you,” Krall said. “We’re in a better spot with the players we have here.”

From the Reds, words like “reallocating resources,” “financial flexibility” and “small market” get used a lot. The lack of payroll flexibility that the front office has available in any given year makes each move critical.

Terry Francona has described it like this: In bigger markets, teams with bigger payrolls can “outspend their mistakes.” The Candelario deal was a mistake for the Reds, but they can’t spend their way out of it.

Krall took over as the lead decision maker at the end of the 2020 season (he was not the executive that signed the Mike Moustakas deal). During that time, the Reds have signed Nick Martinez, Emilio Pagán and Austin Hays who are giving the team bang for their buck (Hays is expected to return from another trip to the IL this week and when he’s been on the field, he’s been a difference-maker). The 2022 trade deadline was successful. Deals for Jose Trevino, Santiago Espinal, Will Benson and Brady Singer have been wins for the Reds.

But Krall’s biggest splash was the Candelario signing. In 134 games with the Reds, a consistently banged up Candelario was a -1.6 WAR player who hit .207.

“He struggled in spring training,” Krall said. “He struggled out of the gate. We put him on the IL and he got an epidural in his back. We thought that would help. We felt this gave us our best chance to win games to keep the guys we have here versus activating him.”

Candelario had fallen so far from expectations that there wasn’t a spot for him on the roster. Connor Joe or Christian Encarnacion-Strand, who have been bench players, could have been optioned to Triple-A. Instead, the Reds cut ties with Candelario.

“At the end of the day,” Krall said, “It just didn’t work out.”

The Reds really need a guy who can play third base and hit left-handed pitching. Those should be Candelario’s strengths, but Krall determined that the 31-year-old Candelario wasn’t that guy.

The Reds signed Candelario heading into the 2024 season to provide some skills that the team really lacked. Even though the Reds were chock full of infielders, they didn’t have a veteran who had a track record of providing polished at-bats.

Candelario had a down year in 2022. But in 2020, 2021 and 2023, Candelario was a top-100 player in all of MLB in WAR. The Reds already had options at first base and third base when they signed Candelario, but there’s always room for good players. It turned out that the Reds didn’t even have enough options at first or third base over the previous two seasons. Candelario’s lack of production was felt every time Nick Martini, Mike Ford, Ty France, Dom Smith, Connor Joe, Santiago Espinal (vs. RHP), Garrett Hampson or Austin Wynns started at first or third base.

Even though Candelario initially joined a crowded infield picture, that group thinned out due to injuries. The Reds needed help at those spots. It just turned out that Candelario wasn’t good enough in Krall’s estimation.

There were concerning flags before he signed his deal. The Tigers non-tendered Candelario at the end of the 2022 season. Candelario was good in 2023, but the underlying metrics weren’t good. He had a great run with the Nationals in the first half of the 2023 season, but they didn’t show much interest in bringing him back in 2024.

Krall missed on this move. For the Reds, having $15 million clogging up your payroll in 2024, 2025 and 2026 prevents you from addressing other flaws on the roster.

When the focus is on “reallocating resources,” “financial flexibility” in a “small market” you have to get the big stuff right. The biggest swing (and miss) of Krall’s tenure is the Candelario contract.

“Would we have used the money differently this offseason?” Krall said. “Yeah we might have.”